电气设备行业深度报告：从框架的变革，看光伏电池技术路线的变革

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the electrical equipment industry [163] Core Views - The photovoltaic (PV) battery industry has undergone two major technological iterations over the past decade, transitioning from multi-crystalline BSF to single-crystalline PERC, and then from P-type PERC to N-type TOPCon, driven by the dual framework of "conversion efficiency + manufacturing cost" [3][17] - In the medium term, TOPCon remains the mainstream technology, while BC and HJT are rapidly advancing in efficiency and cost, with their unique advantages expected to drive higher penetration rates in specific scenarios [4][9] - The industry is shifting from a dual framework of "efficiency + cost" to a multi-framework that considers application scenarios, leading to a more diversified technological landscape [9][54] Technology Iteration and Market Trends - The first iteration (single-crystalline PERC replacing multi-crystalline BSF) occurred between 2017-2020, with PERC's global market share rising from 15% in 2017 to 86% in 2020 [42] - The second iteration (N-type TOPCon replacing P-type PERC) began in 2022, with TOPCon's global market share expected to reach 60% by 2024 [20] - TOPCon's efficiency advantage over PERC is significant, with a 1.3pct higher conversion efficiency in 2022 (24.5% vs. 23.2%) and a theoretical limit of 28.7% compared to PERC's 24.5% [22][45] BC and HJT Technologies - BC batteries have the highest theoretical efficiency among N-type batteries, with a conversion efficiency exceeding 27%, and are particularly suitable for distributed scenarios due to their aesthetic appeal and weak-light performance [9][27] - HJT batteries have a shorter manufacturing process, higher per capita output, and advantages in bifaciality, temperature coefficient, and carbon footprint, making them suitable for regions with high labor costs [9][61][82] - BC and HJT are expected to achieve higher penetration rates as their non-silicon costs continue to decrease, potentially matching TOPCon's cost levels by 2025 [10][86] Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement - The cost reduction path for BC and HJT is becoming clearer, with BC companies focusing on low-cost metal solutions and HJT companies adopting low-silver or silver-free pastes [10][126] - HJT's production cost is expected to decrease further with the adoption of low-indium or indium-free targets, potentially reducing target costs to below 0.02 yuan/W by 2025 [98] - TOPCon's cost advantage lies in its compatibility with existing PERC production lines, requiring only 2-3 additional processes, which reduces equipment and training costs [149] Application Scenarios - BC batteries are gaining traction in distributed markets due to their high efficiency and aesthetic appeal, with Hi-Mo X10 components offering an 8.7% higher power generation compared to TOPCon products [130] - HJT technology is expected to dominate overseas markets, with several large-scale HJT factories being established in the US and Europe, driven by its high automation and low carbon footprint [132] - HJT's high bifaciality makes it suitable for vertical installation scenarios, which offer higher space utilization and lower maintenance costs [133] Future Outlook - In the post-TOPCon era, the PV battery technology landscape is expected to remain diverse, with TOPCon, BC, and HJT each having their own advantages in different application scenarios [134] - The key to future success will be the speed of cost reduction, particularly the adoption of low-cost metal solutions, which will determine the penetration rates of BC and HJT technologies [134]