商贸零售行业2025年投资策略：困境在何处，反转在何方

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" investment rating for the retail industry [7] Core Insights - The retail industry is expected to experience a turnaround after over two years of pressure, driven by clear policy directions for consumption stimulation and active corporate transformations [8] - The overall retail sales in China for January to November 2024 showed a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, with online retail maintaining a steady growth rate of 7.4% [14][17] - Selected consumption categories, such as cosmetics and gold jewelry, are under pressure, with year-on-year declines of 1.3% and 3.3% respectively [11][14] Summary by Sections Online and Offline Retail Performance - Online consumption growth has slowed but remains better than the overall consumption market, with physical goods online retail sales growing by 7.9% year-on-year [5] - The performance of various retail formats shows that convenience stores and specialty stores have seen retail sales growth of 4.4% and 4.0% respectively, while department stores have faced a decline of 2.9% [6] Consumer Behavior and Trends - Essential categories like food and beverages have shown good growth, with year-on-year increases of 9.9% and 3.2% respectively, while optional categories like cosmetics and jewelry are struggling [11][14] - The report highlights a shift in consumer preferences towards value-for-money products, benefiting discount retail formats [6] Future Outlook and Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several key areas for investment opportunities, including: 1. Beauty and personal care, where leading companies are expected to perform well due to brand strength and domestic alternatives [23] 2. Traditional retail, which may benefit from consumption stimulus policies and internal adjustments [23] 3. Gold and jewelry, where despite current pressures, there is potential for recovery as market conditions stabilize [23] 4. Cross-border e-commerce, which continues to thrive despite uncertainties in trade policies [23] Structural Changes in Retail - The report notes that the retail industry is undergoing significant structural changes, with companies actively seeking to innovate and adapt to new consumer trends [19][112] - The emphasis on improving operational efficiency and enhancing customer experience is critical for retail companies to thrive in the current environment [112]