房地产行业2025年度投资策略：冬渐去，雪半消

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [3] Core Insights - The industry is expected to require extraordinary policy measures to stabilize, with 2025 likely entering an extraordinary policy phase, bringing the industry closer to a true stabilization point [1][54][86] - The stabilization of the industry requires the clearance of ineffective inventory, while structural stabilization will need time and extraordinary policy measures [1][54] - Short-term opportunities may arise in undervalued state-owned enterprises, local government financing vehicles, and firms under credit pressure, while long-term focus should be on quality leaders with core assets and stable cash flows [1][54] Summary by Sections Cycle - The current adjustment in the real estate market has not yet entered a significantly oversold territory, with new home sales expected to decline by about 50% from peak levels in 2024 [23][24][45] - The nominal housing price index has seen a maximum cumulative decline of approximately 34% historically, with current price pressures primarily structural rather than global [36][62] Policy - The report anticipates that policies in 2025 will likely enter an extraordinary phase, with significant room for policy enhancement compared to historical responses [86][98] - Recent policy adjustments include lowering down payment ratios and mortgage rates, with a focus on stabilizing the housing market [86][87] Fundamentals - The most challenging period for the industry may be passing, with expectations of a 7.6% year-on-year decline in national commodity housing sales area in 2025 [47][134] - The report predicts a 16.2% year-on-year decline in new housing starts and an 11.7% decline in housing completions for 2025 [47][118] Investment Recommendations - Short-term focus should be on firms with higher elasticity, while long-term attention should be directed towards quality assets [221] - The report suggests that the capital market is transitioning from a policy-driven approach to one that emphasizes fundamental performance [219][221]