大宗商品配置周报：商品市场情绪平淡

Market Overview - No mainstream commodities reached new highs this week, while several agricultural products like soybeans and soybean meal hit one-year lows[4] - The palm oil market saw a significant drop in volume, while canola meal experienced a rise in volume[28] Macroeconomic Insights - Domestic policies since September have improved expectations, while Trump's trade policies continue to pose uncertainties for commodities in the medium to long term[5] - Economic data for November showed mixed results, with durable goods consumption supported by "trade-in" policies, while non-durable goods consumption declined[6] Investment Recommendations - Precious metals remain a long-term allocation target to hedge against currency credit risks, with gold expected to outperform silver in the near term[7] - Basic metals like copper, aluminum, and zinc are expected to experience supply disruptions, with a medium to long-term upward trend anticipated[7] - The black metal sector is expected to stabilize as domestic demand improves, with a potential trend shift anticipated before the Two Sessions in March[7] Commodity Performance - The week saw significant declines in agricultural products, with palm oil down by 6.5% and live pigs down by 7.5%[11][49] - The overall commodity market sentiment remains subdued, with many agricultural products facing trading difficulties due to weak demand expectations[13] Risk Factors - Key risks include the potential for the U.S. economy to weaken unexpectedly, slower-than-expected fiscal progress, and financial system panic[21]