Group 1: Monetary Policy Outlook - The "moderately loose" monetary policy is expected to implement timely reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, leading to further declines in deposit and loan rates[1] - The anticipated social financing growth in 2025 is projected to be around CNY 35 trillion, while new RMB loans are expected to range between CNY 16 trillion and CNY 19 trillion[65] - The central bank's focus on "strengthening interest rate policy execution and transmission" suggests that the cost of liabilities for financial institutions may continue to decrease[1] Group 2: Deposit Rate Dynamics - The trend of "deposit migration" is driven by the reduction in deposit rates, with a significant shift from demand deposits to time deposits observed[2] - As of November 2024, the balance of excess deposits reached CNY 56.73 trillion, with nearly CNY 50 trillion of this increase occurring since 2020[76] - The average interest rate for new loans fell to 3.45% by the end of November 2024, while the average yield on 10-year government bonds was 2.02%, indicating a shift in the relative value between loans and bonds[45] Group 3: Liquidity and Market Trends - The liquidity landscape is characterized by a "non-bank abundance and bank neutrality" scenario, with expectations that the DR007 and major policy rates will maintain a central spread of 10-15 basis points[3] - The "migration" of deposits has led to a temporary disappearance of liquidity stratification, with the R007 and DR007 spread averaging 15 basis points, down from 25 basis points in the previous year[19] - The shift in deposits towards non-bank financial institutions has resulted in increased demand for low-risk assets, particularly government bonds and high-grade credit bonds[20]
2025年度展望（十）：流动性与利率：起底存款“搬家”，资金去向何处？
Soochow Securities·2024-12-23 12:55