商贸零售行业深度报告：2025消费展望：消费券刺激效果如何预期？

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Overweight" [8] Core Insights - The report highlights the effectiveness of consumption vouchers in stimulating demand, particularly in economically developed regions, with a notable multiplier effect observed during the issuance of vouchers [8][24] - The estimated scale of consumption stimulus for 2025 is projected to reach between 369.6 billion to 994.3 billion yuan, driven by increased issuance of long-term special government bonds and enhanced fiscal policies [4][69][100] Summary by Sections 1. China's Consumption Voucher Policy Practice - The issuance of consumption vouchers has evolved, with significant distribution during economic downturns, such as the 2008 financial crisis, where over 20 billion yuan in vouchers were distributed across 32 cities [24] - The effectiveness of consumption vouchers has been demonstrated, with a direct leverage effect on small to medium-sized consumption ranging from 4 to 10 times the issued amount [10][71] 2. Outlook for 2025 Consumption Stimulus Policies - The report estimates that the scale of consumption stimulus in 2025 could reach between 178.9 billion to 390 billion yuan, with a significant portion allocated to consumer subsidies [12][69] - The government plans to increase fiscal deficits and issue long-term special bonds to support consumption, indicating a proactive approach to stimulate domestic demand [85] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on retail sector companies such as Yonghui Supermarket, Chongqing Department Store, and Dahong Group, which are expected to benefit from increased consumer confidence [34][100] - In the hospitality and restaurant sectors, companies like Huazhu Group, Jinjiang Hotels, and Haidilao are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of service consumption vouchers [34][88]