建筑材料行业2025年年度策略：重视供给侧积极变化，静待需求回暖

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The current construction materials sector is still in a downturn, but signs of recovery are emerging due to improving front-end data and supportive policies such as debt reduction and inventory management. Cement and fiberglass prices are expected to recover in 2024, with cement showing the highest earnings elasticity due to its low base and industry characteristics. The long-term growth potential of consumer building materials is promising, and as new construction stabilizes, the impact of existing stock on performance is anticipated to become more pronounced. Some consumer companies are expected to see revenue growth in 2024 despite market challenges, indicating strong alpha. The report remains optimistic about the long-term improvement in profitability and operational quality of leading companies [3][7]. Summary by Sections Consumer Building Materials - A turning point in sales is approaching, with expectations for existing demand to drive a new growth cycle. The real estate policy has strengthened since September, leading to marginal improvements in the market. November sales area is expected to show positive year-on-year growth, with second-hand home sales increasing to 65% of total sales. The report draws parallels with the U.S. market, where real estate sales began an upward cycle in late 2011, growing at a CAGR of approximately 7% over nearly a decade. Leading consumer building material companies are expected to leverage their cash flow and leverage advantages to achieve new growth [3][7][29]. Cement - The supply-side reform in 2025 is expected to gain momentum, with profit growth elasticity being the highest. The report anticipates a narrowing of demand decline due to infrastructure work and stabilization in new construction. Short-term measures like staggered production are seen as effective for balancing supply and demand. The report predicts that with stricter policies against overproduction, the industry will begin to see real capacity clearance. Price increases have already been observed in the East China region, which is expected to support profit recovery in the fourth quarter and set a solid foundation for early 2025 [3][7][10]. Fiberglass - The peak demand phase has passed, but growth prospects remain strong in the renewable energy sector, particularly in wind and solar power. The report expects demand growth in 2025, driven by macroeconomic recovery, although there may be short-term supply pressures due to new capacity coming online in 2024. The report highlights the importance of structural opportunities amid competitive differentiation, recommending companies like China Jushi and Changhai Co. [3][7][45]. Glass - The industry is expected to accelerate cold repairs, with a focus on maintaining supply-demand balance. Although there is downward pressure on the completion side, demand from stock renovations and deep processing is expected to provide some support. The report notes that the current average profit environment is conducive to speeding up cold repairs, with potential for dynamic balance in supply and demand. The report recommends companies like Qibin Group and Jinjing Technology [3][7][8]. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends several key companies based on their growth potential and market positioning, including: - SanKeTree (603737.SH) - Beixin Building Materials (000786.SZ) - Weixing New Materials (002372.SZ) - Rabbit Baby (002043.SZ) - Conch Cement (600585.SH) - Huaxin Cement (600801.SH) - Shangfeng Cement (000672.SZ) - China Jushi (600176.SH) - Changhai Co. (300196.SZ) - Qibin Group (601636.SH) - Jinjing Technology (600586.SH) [5][73].