Changzhou Shichuang Energy (688429) 东吴证券·2024-12-23 14:07Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its growth potential [10]. Core Insights - The company, Shichuang Energy, has established itself as a leader in photovoltaic materials and is expanding into equipment, battery cells, and module products, focusing on original technology development [148]. - The company has a strong R&D team of approximately 600 members, which is crucial for its innovation and technological advancements [3][41]. - The photovoltaic industry is expected to continue growing, with global installations projected to reach 559 GW by 2026, indicating a robust market for the company's products [208][212]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Overview - Shichuang Energy started with photovoltaic consumables and has expanded into equipment and battery products, launching new technologies like the bifacial TOPCon battery and the innovative "edge material" technology [148][230]. - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with a CAGR of 50% from 2019 to 2023, although it faced challenges in 2024 due to industry conditions [124][148]. 2. Photovoltaic Consumables - The company is a leader in the market for wet process auxiliary materials, with a market share of 68% in texturing agents and 100% in cleaning agents [181][134]. - The market for wet process additives is expected to exceed 15 billion yuan by 2026, driven by increasing demand in the photovoltaic sector [141][206]. 3. Photovoltaic Equipment - Shichuang Energy's equipment, including defect passivation and chain annealing devices, is recognized for its technological superiority, with a market share of 80.52% in chain annealing equipment [176][218]. - The company anticipates significant market opportunities in the equipment sector, with projected growth in demand for passivation, annealing, and impurity removal devices [174][176]. 4. Edge Material Technology - The company has pioneered the use of edge material in half-cell production, addressing the industry's need for efficient material utilization [230][236]. - The edge material technology has the potential to enhance efficiency and reduce costs in photovoltaic cell production [236][240]. 5. Stacked Busbar Technology - The stacked busbar technology is expected to significantly reduce silver consumption and improve module efficiency, with the potential to save 4-5 cents per watt [245][262]. - The collaboration with industry leaders like Tongwei and Jingsheng is aimed at accelerating the commercialization of this technology [279][292]. 6. Financial Projections - The company is projected to experience fluctuations in net profit, with estimates of -6.5 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 1.3 billion yuan in 2025 and 1.5 billion yuan in 2026 [148][295]. - The report highlights the company's strong growth potential, with a dynamic PE ratio of 60 and 51 for 2025 and 2026, respectively [148][306].