资金流向和中短线指标体系跟踪（二）：“跨年行情”的资金面透视

Group 1 - The report highlights that at the beginning of the year, macro liquidity often faces pressure, leading to some on-site funds flowing out for risk aversion, resulting in lower overall market trading activity, particularly in small-cap growth styles [3][18][27] - It is anticipated that in the upcoming year, the scale of foreign capital inflow during the "cross-year market" will be relatively limited, with insurance capital potentially being an important incremental source [3][38] - The report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a decrease in trading volume, with net outflows of funds being tracked [3][61] Group 2 - The macro liquidity is marginally tightening, with bond market interest rates declining and the exchange rate depreciating [3][42][68] - The report notes that the sentiment among retail investors has declined, with net inflows from retail investors decreasing significantly [3][86] - Leverage funds have seen a contraction in net inflow, with increased positions in electronics and communications sectors [3][88] Group 3 - The report states that public funds have seen a slight increase in new issuance strength, primarily in index funds, while actively managed equity funds have generally reduced their stock positions [3][41][84] - Insurance capital is expected to bring significant incremental funds to the market in January, benefiting from the "opening red" effect [3][38] - The report mentions that the correlation between stock and bond returns has shown a marginal increase in the "seesaw" effect [3][107] Group 4 - The report constructs an index to track the divergence between A-shares and the exchange rate, indicating that the index has returned from a severely divergent range [3][119] - The A-share and Hong Kong stock return divergence index has shown a high level of return divergence, suggesting a potential return to equilibrium [3][129] - The report indicates that the A-share size and growth style divergence index has reached a peak, suggesting a potential shift towards balance in market styles [3][135]