社服行业2025年度投资策略：凤鸣朝阳，看好服务消费崛起

Industry Overview - The current PE valuation percentiles for human resources, catering, hotels, duty-free, education, and scenic spots are 21%, 19%, 22%, 17%, 93%, and 94% respectively, while the PB valuation percentiles are 20%, 25%, 9%, 4%, 46%, and 30%, all below the median level [3] - The rebound potential for human resources, catering, duty-free, and hotels from the PE median is approximately 58%, 39%, 27%, and 12% respectively, while the rebound potential from the PB median is approximately 53%, 40%, 27%, and 15% respectively [4] - The human resources sector has a rebound potential of 58% from the PE median and 40% from the PB median, with current valuations at historical lows, but the recovery process may be prolonged due to lagging profit recovery [4] Catering Sector - The catering sector is expected to recover soon, with a focus on same-store improvements and growth targets [7] - In 2024, the growth rate of the catering sector gradually slowed down, mainly due to the overall slowdown in consumption growth and the high base effect from the rapid rebound in demand last year [7] - The catering sector's income growth is under pressure despite the recovery in passenger flow, reflecting intensified competition and a downward trend in average spending per customer [13] - The average spending per customer in the catering sector continued to decline in 2024, with the largest drop in leisure scenarios, followed by daily and scenic dining scenarios, but it showed signs of stabilization from October to November 2024 [13] Education Sector - The education sector's core goal has shifted from stratified selection to classified training, but the social demand for cultivating excellent talents remains unchanged [36] - The K12 student population in China remains large, and the impact of the declining birth rate on the K12 student base may gradually appear in the future, but the rigid demand for education is expected to continue driving market expansion [36] - The education sector's supply-demand imbalance is expected to continue, with leading companies benefiting from strong brand power, expansion capabilities, and organizational strength [36] Human Resources Sector - The human resources sector is highly correlated with corporate recruitment demand and exhibits pro-cyclical and post-cyclical characteristics [48] - Employment demand has shown quarterly improvements, but a substantial turning point in business operations is yet to be seen [48] - The human resources sector is considered to have high investment value due to its valuation attractiveness, low earnings base, and growth certainty from cost reduction and efficiency improvement [48] Tourism and Scenic Spots - In 2024, the number of domestic tourists increased by 15.32% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with holiday data showing that the total number of tourists has consistently exceeded the same period in 2019 since May 2023 [57] - The average travel radius and destination radius of domestic tourists have significantly increased since 2023, with long-distance travel accounting for over 70% of the summer travel market in 2024 [67] - The tourism industry's strategic position is expected to rise, with specific policy measures anticipated to be implemented in the future [74] Hotel Sector - In 2024, the hotel sector's RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) was mainly driven by ADR (Average Daily Rate), with RevPAR growth rates from January to October being +14%, -3%, -6%, -9%, -9%, -8%, -11%, -5%, -9%, and -8% respectively [79] - The three major hotel groups maintained a high pace of new store openings in the first three quarters of 2024, with Jinjiang Hotels and BTG Hotels close to their annual targets, and Huazhu Group raising its 2024 store opening guidance [80] - The hotel sector's RevPAR is closely related to the non-manufacturing PMI, and with the non-manufacturing PMI remaining above the boom-bust line, the hotel sector's RevPAR is expected to grow with the recovery of economic activities in 2025 [111] Duty-Free Sector - The duty-free sector in Hainan has been under pressure, with a 36% year-on-year decline in sales in Q3 2024, a 12% drop in average spending per customer, and a 27% decrease in the number of shoppers [114] - The average spending per customer in Hainan's duty-free sector saw a year-on-year increase of 3% in September 2024, the first positive growth since January 2023, but it declined again in October and November, though the decline narrowed [114] - The duty-free sector at ports has seen significant growth due to the recovery of international flights, with Beijing and Shanghai airport duty-free stores experiencing over 140% and nearly 60% year-on-year growth in revenue respectively [90] Education and Training Sector - The education and training sector has seen a significant reduction in supply after the "double reduction" policy, with 92% of offline training centers and 87% of online training institutions being cleared out [117] - The policy environment for non-academic training has become clearer, with the establishment of a classification management mechanism for non-academic and academic training, providing a more favorable environment for non-academic training [99] - The education and training sector is expected to continue its supply-demand imbalance, with leading companies benefiting from strong brand power, expansion capabilities, and organizational strength [102]