宏观年度报告：奋楫逐浪，乘风而上

Oil Supply and Demand Forecast - EIA and IEA predict a surplus of 310,000 and 890,000 barrels per day in 2025, respectively, while OPEC anticipates a gap of 2.1 million barrels per day under the assumption of no production increase[3] - In 2023 and 2024, global oil supply is expected to be tight with a deficit of 120,000 and 510,000 barrels per day, respectively[3] - If the DOC (OPEC+ production cut agreement) maintains its current output, a supply gap of 1.7 million barrels per day is projected for 2024[4] Price Projections - Under a neutral demand scenario, Brent crude oil prices are expected to average between $75 and $80 per barrel in 2025, while WTI prices are projected to be around $70 to $75 per barrel[4] - In a pessimistic demand scenario, WTI prices are expected to remain above $60 per barrel, with Brent prices around $65 per barrel[4] - If OPEC+ increases production by 500,000 barrels per day, Brent prices are anticipated to fluctuate between $60 and $90 per barrel[4] Economic Impact of Tariff Policies - Trump's proposed tariffs could reduce U.S. GDP by 1.6% to 1.9% depending on the scenario, with a 60% tariff on Chinese goods and a 10% tariff on others[31] - The initial tariff phase (Trump 1.0) had a GDP impact of -0.12%[31] - The overall effect of the new tariffs could lead to a total GDP impact of approximately -1.8%[34] U.S. Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to experience a slight recovery in 2025, driven by consumption and expansionary fiscal policies, despite ongoing inflation risks[10] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with an average non-farm payroll increase of 212,000 jobs in 2024, down from 251,000 in 2023[42] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to around 4.2% in 2024, indicating a weakening labor market[42] Inflation Trends - U.S. CPI growth is expected to decrease from an average of 4.13% in 2023 to 2.99% in 2024, with core CPI also declining[48] - However, inflation risks remain due to potential wage increases driven by Trump's policies and reduced labor supply from immigration controls[49][52]