投资咨询号: Z0000116 国贸期货研究院 2025/9/5 金融衍生品中心 李泽钜 从业资格号:F0251925 数据来源: Wind,国贸期货研究院 行情回顾 指数 成交量(亿) 收盘价 涨跌幅(%) 成交额(亿元) 2080. 35 上证50 -1. 71 2910. 47 91. 92 7731. 25 沪深300 4365. 2085 -2. 12 307. 93 -2. 30 297. 62 中证1000 7041. 1544 4885. 95 中金所股指期权成交情况 期权成交量 认购期权 认沾期权 日成交量 期权持企量 认购期权 认洁期权 持仓量 指数 持仓量 (万张) (万张) 持仓量 成交量 成交量 PCR PCR 上证50 5. 85 3. 57 0. 61 10. 02 6. 39 3. 63 0. 57 9. 42 沪深300 22. 82 13. 58 9. 24 0. 68 22. 94 13. 19 9.75 0. 74 中证1000 22. 66 21. 77 0. 96 35. 12 16. 22 44. 43 18. 90 0. 86 中证1000PCR走势 沪深300 ...

周四钢联数据中凸显钢材产量受阅兵影响大幅下降,表需也受拖累回落,供需双弱。毋庸置疑,当下几个主流品种,在产量 偏高水平下,淡季累库的斜率更大。阅兵后很多生产环节都快速复产,当然终端需求也会恢复正常,市场总量矛盾还是在于 需求偏淡,而后续复产后供应端偏高的担忧始终会压制价格。周四期价试探新低后回涨了一些,现货低价也有拿货行为,后 续还有旺季需求高点待确认,下跌可能偏抵抗。期货表现上,钢材期价的估值修复至中性区间,期现正套止盈,下游买货企 业可有选择性适当买入套保(期货或期权工具均可参考)。 | | | | | | | | Extern Expirition Production Comments of Children Comments of Children Comment | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/09/05 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | ...

II GERIK 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | | 二人八人 / / / / / / 00// 卢钊毅 | 投资咨询号： Z0021177 从业资格号:F03101843 | | 2025/9/5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | | | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | | | | | | 를 | 现值 | 1445 | 1156 | 1923 | 1013 | 2866 | 1481 | | | 前値 | 1415 | 1175 | 1644 | 1041 | 2613 | 1668 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | 2.10% | -1.58% | 16.97% | -2.69% | 9.68% | -11.21% | | 블 | | SCFIS-西北欧 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - Short - term stock index futures basis widens again, and with liquidity drive, short - term index adjustment may bring long - position layout opportunities [1]. - Short - term gold price may shift to high - level consolidation, but the long - term center of gravity still has upward space; silver may run at a high level in the short term but has the risk of increased volatility [1]. - Aluminum price fluctuates due to weak domestic downstream demand in the off - season and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut; zinc price has limited downside space despite inventory pressure; nickel price follows the macro trend in the short term and long - term surplus pressure remains [1]. - Stainless steel futures fluctuate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual production of steel mills; tin price is strong in the short term; industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate have their own market characteristics and influencing factors [1]. - Steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil have neutral valuations, unclear industrial drivers, and warm macro drivers; iron ore has upward opportunities in the far - month contracts; coal and coke prices are under pressure [1]. - Palm oil and soybean oil are expected to run in a volatile manner; rapeseed oil is recommended to be observed; cotton price may range - bound in the short term; sugar supply is expected to be loose; corn has limited short - term rebound and downward space in the medium term [1]. - Crude oil, fuel oil, and other energy - related products are affected by geopolitical situations, OPEC+ policies, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations; various chemical products such as PTA, short - fiber, and styrene have their own market trends and influencing factors [1]. - Alumina price is under pressure due to weak fundamentals; copper price is expected to rise; some products like soda ash and ethylene glycol face supply - surplus pressure [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Treasury bonds**: No clear trend judgment provided [1]. - **Gold**: Short - term high - level consolidation, long - term upward space [1]. - **Silver**: Short - term high - level operation with increased volatility risk [1]. Non - ferrous metals - **Aluminum**: Fluctuates due to domestic demand and Fed rate - cut expectation, pay attention to far - month long - position opportunities [1]. - **Zinc**: Limited downside space, be cautious about short - selling in the short term [1]. - **Nickel**: Follows macro trend in the short term, long - term surplus pressure exists, focus on short - term trading and selling hedging opportunities [1]. - **Stainless steel**: Short - term weak fluctuations, pay attention to actual production of steel mills [1]. - **Tin**: Strong in the short term [1]. - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes, high hedging pressure, polysilicon production cut expected [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Capacity reduction expected in the long - term, low terminal installation willingness, good profit [1]. - **Lithium carbonate**: Frequent resource - end disturbances, large short - term downstream replenishment, limited subsequent replenishment space [1]. Ferrous metals - **Rebar and hot - rolled coil**: Neutral valuations, unclear industrial drivers, warm macro drivers [1]. - **Iron ore**: Upward opportunities in far - month contracts [1]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Prices are under pressure [1]. Agricultural products - **Palm oil and soybean oil**: Expected to run in a volatile manner, consider exiting long positions [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: Recommended to observe [1]. - **Cotton**: Short - term range - bound [1]. - **Sugar**: Supply expected to be loose, price with upper - bound pressure [1]. - **Corn**: Limited short - term rebound, downward space in the medium term [1]. - **Pulp**: Consider 11 - 1 positive spread [1]. - **Log**: Weakly fluctuating [1]. - **Pig**: Bearish due to increased supply and lower costs [1]. Energy and chemicals - **Crude oil and fuel oil**: Affected by geopolitics, OPEC+ policies, and Fed rate - cut expectations [1]. - **PTA**: Production resumes, price difference expands, and short - term upward momentum is strong [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Factory overhauls increase, and warehouse receipts increase [1]. - **Styrene**: Bearish due to industry reform rumors and weakening market transactions [1]. - **Urea**: Limited upside space, supported by cost [1]. - **PVC**: Fluctuates weakly, with supply pressure and more near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: Affected by international oil prices, CP prices, and downstream profit conditions [1]. Others - **Shipping**: Supply exceeds the same - period level, and freight rates decline [1]. - **Alumina**: Weak fundamentals put pressure on prices [1]. - **Copper**: Expected to rise, consider stopping profit for spot - futures positive spread [1]. - **Soda ash**: Bearish due to supply surplus [1]. - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by industry reform rumors and hedging pressure [1].

| | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/9/5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 (bp) | | स्ट | DR001 | 1.31 | -0.01 | DR007 | 1.44 | 0.40 | | F | GC001 | 1.01 | 1.50 | GC007 | 1.44 | -2.50 | | 市 | SHBOR 3M | 1.55 | 0.10 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | | 1年期国债 | 1.37 | 0.23 | 5年期国债 | 1.60 | -2.52 | | 场 | | | | | | | | 与 | 10年期国债 | 1.81 | -1.69 | 10年期美债 | 4.28 | 5.00 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 = 回顾:央行昨日开展了2126亿元7天期逆回购操作,当日4161亿元逆 ...

2025/9/5 | 指标 | | 9月4日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | ===== 20/21 | | == | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 天津 | 72 12 | -2 -2 | 1600 1200 | こここー・18/19 ----- 22/23 | | ----- 19/20 ----- 23/24 | - 24/25 | | - 25/26 | | | | | | 800 | | | | | | | | | 日照 | -28 | 18 | 400 | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 (对主力合约) | 张家港 | -8 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | -400 01/21 | | | 02/21 03/24 04/24 05/25 06/25 07/26 08/26 09/26 10/27 | | | 11/27 12/28 | | | 东莞 | -68 | 18 | | | | MJ-M5 | | | | ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/9/5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | | COMEX白银 | AU2510 | AG2510 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 | | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 (本表数 | 2025/9/4 | 3536. 55 | 40. 85 | 3596. 80 | | 41.45 | 812. 98 | 9773.00 | 808. 90 | 9769.00 | | 据来源 ...

and and and and and the may be the mail of the mail 023-0 ■ 焦煤基差(右轴) 天津港:库提价:主焦煤(蒙古,A10%,V27%,0. 7%S 期待收盘价(活跃合约):佳煤 800 2000 4000 600 3000 400 2000 200 1000 -200 2024-01 焦炭基差(右轴) 青岛港:出库价(含税):准一级治金焦(A13. 期货收益价(活跃合约 1500 铁 是美(石翔 | | | | | | | | Extern Expirition Production Comments of Children Comments of Children Comment | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/09/05 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 执业 ...

| | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 2025/9/5 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号: | | | | | | E3046778 | | 指标 | 2025/9/3 | 2025/9/4 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4705 | 4620 | (85. 00) | 现货资讯: | | MEG内盘价格 | 4435 | 4451 | 16.00 | 短纤:涤纶短纤跌100至6330。现货市场;涤纶 | | PTA收盘价 | 4732 | 4656 | (76. 00) | 短纤生产工厂价格偏弱整理,贸易商价格下跌, | | MEG收盘价 | 4331 | 4357 | 26. 00 | 下游维持小单刚需采购,市场成交以贸易商补空 为主,期现商成交放量,工厂成交清淡。 | | 1.4D直纺涤短 | 6575 | 6510 | (65.00) | 1.56dtex*38mm半光本白(1.4D)涤纶短纤华东市 | | 短纤基差 | 66 | 91 | 25 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 髪酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/9/5 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/9/3 | 2025/9/4 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 493. 2 | 481.0 | -12. 20 | 成交情况: PTA:原油行情下跌,对PTA成本支撑减弱,PTA供应充 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/吨) | 1147.9 | 1160. 5 | 12. 66 | 足,下游涤纶长丝产销42.67%,市场缺乏信心,PTA行 情下跌,基差走弱。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3203 | 1. 3320 | 0. 0117 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 843 | 843 | 0 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 243 | 243 | 0 | | | ...