【粤开宏观】回稳有望：2024年房地产形势总结与2025年展望

Sales Performance - In November 2024, new home sales in China showed a positive growth of 3.2% in area and 1.0% in sales value year-on-year, marking a recovery from previous declines[21] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in new home sales area for the first 11 months was -16.0%, an improvement of 8.8 percentage points compared to the beginning of the year[21] - In first-tier cities, new home sales increased by 10.2% and 6.8% in November, indicating a significant recovery in these key markets[21] Investment Trends - From January to November 2024, real estate investment decreased by 10.3% year-on-year, continuing a downward trend for three consecutive years[4] - The decline in investment is attributed to proactive inventory reduction by the industry, which is expected to help achieve a new supply-demand balance in the long term[4] - The top 100 real estate companies saw a 31.5% year-on-year decrease in land acquisition amounts from January to November 2024[11] Market Dynamics - The proportion of land transfer payments from first-tier cities accounted for 22.0% of the total across 300 cities, an increase of 3.1 percentage points from 2023[5] - The inventory of new residential properties decreased to 3.77 billion square meters by the end of November 2024, with a de-inventory cycle of 19.5 months, down from earlier highs[9] Policy Impact - The central government's policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market have shown initial effectiveness, with a noticeable recovery in housing demand since October 2024[9] - The ongoing challenges include low investment levels, declining housing prices in many cities, and the need to address the debt risks faced by real estate companies[11] Future Outlook - For 2025, it is anticipated that the year-on-year decline in real estate sales and investment will narrow, with a focus on stabilizing the market[12] - The expected recovery in the real estate market will depend on the effectiveness of economic stabilization policies and inventory reduction efforts[12]