曲美家居：盈利能力改善，静待需求恢复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 3.74 [26]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the home furnishings sector in China, with its subsidiary Ekornes owning globally recognized brands like Stressless. The company has faced revenue pressure due to low demand both domestically and internationally, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 10.0% to RMB 2.637 billion in the first three quarters of 2024. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company improved to a loss of RMB 145 million, compared to a loss of RMB 206 million in the same period last year. Looking ahead, the company is expected to improve operations through reforms in its furniture business, cost optimization, and the commercialization of land and factory assets, alongside government policies promoting consumption upgrades. The easing of interest rates in the U.S. is also anticipated to boost demand for durable consumer goods in 2025, leading to improvements in both domestic and international sales [9][11][25]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been undergoing strategic adjustments since 2022, facing challenges from the real estate cycle and intensified competition. The introduction of new product lines and a focus on operational efficiency are key strategies for recovery [10][14]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is projected to decline by 7.1% to RMB 3.740 billion, with a gradual recovery expected in 2025 and 2026. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be a loss of RMB 1.61 billion in 2024, followed by profits of RMB 1.16 billion and RMB 1.97 billion in 2025 and 2026, respectively. The report anticipates an improvement in gross margins due to cost optimization efforts [11][15][28]. Subsidiary Performance - Ekornes, the subsidiary, has been under pressure due to high interest rates and inventory issues but is expected to see a recovery starting in Q2 2024. Revenue for Ekornes is projected to decline by 6.9% in 2024, with a recovery of 5.8% in 2025 and 2026. The gross margin for Ekornes is expected to improve to 36.3% in 2024, continuing to rise in subsequent years [10][28]. Valuation - The report estimates a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 22 times for 2025, based on the company's international layout and global supply chain capabilities. The target price of RMB 3.74 reflects these expectations [11][28].