银行业2025年投资策略：再论低估值与红利价值重估

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, emphasizing the low valuation, high dividend yield, and low positioning of bank stocks, which are expected to drive a revaluation in 2025 [41][57] Core Views - The PB-ROE valuation of bank stocks is highly attractive, with banks like Chengdu Bank, Hangzhou Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Jiangsu Bank showing significant undervaluation and outperforming the market in 2023 [2] - The dividend sustainability of banks is closely tied to their capital adequacy and profitability, with banks like China Merchants Bank, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank having strong capital buffers [3] - The net interest margin (NIM) of banks is expected to decline by 10 basis points (BP) in 2025, with deposit rates likely to fall further to offset the impact of loan rate reductions [52][96] - The credit growth in 2025 is projected to slow down to 7.0%, with corporate loans continuing to outpace retail loans, while mortgage loans are expected to contract slightly [88][89] Key Company Summaries China Merchants Bank - China Merchants Bank is highlighted as a rare endogenous growth dividend stock, with its valuation expected to converge towards a 4.0% dividend yield [9][58] - The bank's PB valuation and chip structure are seen as disadvantages, but its endogenous growth logic remains strong, making it a key recommendation [9] State-Owned Banks - State-owned banks are recommended as core holdings, with their H-shares offering more attractive valuations compared to A-shares [58][79] - The dividend yield of major state-owned banks is currently 4.81%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield [39] Regional Banks - Hangzhou Bank, Chengdu Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Changshu Bank are recommended based on their PB-ROE valuations, with Hangzhou Bank being a top pick [58] - Ningbo Bank, Ping An Bank, and Ruifeng Bank are also highlighted for their cyclical attributes, which could benefit from macroeconomic improvements in 2025 [10] Industry Trends Credit Growth - The credit growth in 2025 is expected to slow down, with corporate loans continuing to lead, while retail loans, especially mortgage loans, are expected to contract slightly [89][92] - The market share of large banks in credit is expected to continue growing, driven by their scale, cost advantages, and policy support [95] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for real estate corporate loans is expected to continue declining, supported by regulatory measures like the white list system [56][101] - However, retail loan risks may remain under pressure, with NPL generation rates potentially rising slightly in the short term [56] Net Interest Margin (NIM) - The NIM of banks is expected to decline by 10 BP in 2025, with deposit rates likely to fall further to offset the impact of loan rate reductions [52][96] - The deposit cost is expected to decline significantly in 2025, driven by regulatory measures and the expiration of high-interest deposits [112] Dividend Policies - The dividend payout ratios of major banks like ICBC, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank have remained stable at 30%, with some banks like China Merchants Bank increasing their payout ratios [6][58] - Regional banks generally adopt phased dividend policies, with local regulators encouraging capital retention [6]