计算机行业2024年12月暨2025年度策略：AI应用方兴日盛，推理算力蓄势待发

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the computer industry, indicating a positive outlook for AI applications and domestic computing power [6][23]. Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid development of AI applications across various sectors, predicting a significant growth year in 2025. The continuous iteration of large models and the decreasing costs of API calls are expected to enhance the penetration of AI applications [4][6][23]. - The AI Agent market is on the verge of explosion, with a projected global market size of USD 5.29 billion in 2024, expected to reach USD 216.8 billion by 2035, reflecting a CAGR of 40.15% from 2024 to 2035 [6][72]. - The quantum computing market is also anticipated to grow rapidly, with a projected increase from USD 1.605 billion in 2023 to USD 8.948 billion by 2028, corresponding to a CAGR of 41.01% [6][72]. Summary by Sections AI Applications - Continuous model iteration is solidifying the foundation for AI applications, with significant advancements in various fields such as finance, healthcare, education, and CRM. The report emphasizes the potential for explosive growth in AI applications in 2025 [4][6][35]. AI Computing Power - Capital expenditures by cloud vendors have been increasing, with notable year-on-year growth rates: Microsoft (+78.6%), Google (+62.2%), Meta (+36.1%), and Amazon (+88.3%) in Q3 2024. This trend is expected to drive a new cycle of capital expenditure growth [6][12]. - The report anticipates that the share of inference computing power in China will reach 67.7% in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 26.4 percentage points [6][12]. AI Agents - The AI Agent market is in its early stages, with a significant portion of Y Combinator's winter cohort projects in 2024 focusing on AI Agents. The report suggests that these agents could disrupt traditional work paradigms [6][72]. - The report outlines that AI Agents will likely transition to a goal-oriented work paradigm as their automation capabilities improve [6][72]. Quantum Computing - Google's release of the Willow quantum chip marks a significant milestone, achieving low-threshold quantum error correction. The report notes that the global quantum computing market is expected to grow rapidly, with a projected market size of USD 8.948 billion by 2028 [6][72]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on AI applications and domestic computing power, highlighting companies like Kingsoft Office and Haiguang Information as potential investment opportunities due to their strong positioning in the AI landscape [6][23].