商贸零售行业2025年度投资策略：从渠道增长迈向品牌增长

Industry Overview - The community e-commerce market size remained flat in 2023, with Meituan Youxuan experiencing slower growth [1] - Meituan Maicai upgraded to Xiaoxiang Supermarket in December 2023, with transaction value increasing by 30% YoY [1] - The near-field retail sector is shifting towards profit-oriented strategies, with Dingdong Maicai achieving profitability in the first three quarters of 2024 [15] Company Performance - Meituan Youxuan's growth fell short of expectations in 2023, with significant losses due to intense competition and difficulty in reducing fulfillment costs [1] - Xiaoxiang Supermarket saw steady growth in user base, average order value, and purchase frequency, with its own brand sales proportion continuously increasing [1] - Dingdong Maicai's gross margin improved significantly, reaching 28% in Q4 2021 and stabilizing above 30% from Q2 2022 onwards [16] Strategic Adjustments - Meituan plans to focus on building core competitiveness and improving user experience in 2024, aiming to significantly reduce operating losses [1] - Dingdong Maicai strategically exited some high-investment, low-return regions, reducing expenses and benefiting from efficient warehouse and distribution systems in first-tier cities [16] - Xiaoxiang Supermarket transitioned from a heavy-asset offline store model to a light-asset front warehouse model, enhancing its platform operation capabilities and delivery system [75] Market Trends - The gold jewelry industry saw a 28% YoY decline in gold jewelry consumption in the first three quarters of 2024 due to rising gold prices [121] - The proportion of investment gold consumption increased to 44% in Q2 2024 but fell to 41% in Q3 2024, indicating a potential rebound in gold jewelry consumption if gold prices stabilize [104] - The cosmetics industry is transitioning from channel-driven growth to product and brand-driven growth, with leading brands expected to continue outperforming [41] Financial Metrics - Meituan's new business losses narrowed to 4.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, down from 28.4 billion yuan in 2022 [9] - Dingdong Maicai achieved a non-GAAP net profit of 120 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting significant operational improvements [25] - The average income of representative supermarket companies declined by 9% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024, with gross margins falling by 1.2 percentage points [78] Future Outlook - The gold jewelry industry is expected to see a rebound in demand in 2025, driven by low base effects and potential stabilization in gold prices [102] - The cosmetics industry is expected to see continued growth in product innovation and brand differentiation, with leading companies likely to maintain their market positions [41] - The near-field retail sector is expected to continue optimizing operations and improving profitability, with a focus on high-quality product offerings and efficient supply chains [92]