海运行业2025年度投资策略：周期的魅力，需求是底色

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a clear investment rating for the industry [52] Core Views - The essence of the divergence in the shipping industry in 2024 lies in changes in demand volume and structure, with nominal supply being relatively certain based on fleet capacity and planned deliveries [3] - For the shipping industry in 2025, the core focus should still be on changes in demand, particularly in sectors influenced by fiscal stimulus, sectors with rigid supply and elastic demand, and sectors with potential structural changes in demand [78][116] Industry Overview - In 2024, the container shipping industry experienced a supply-demand reversal, with seasonal characteristics confirmed despite weak demand recovery [5][74] - The dry bulk shipping market saw a recovery in 2024, driven by large vessels, with the BDI index rising by 30.8% year-on-year by November [17][18] - The oil tanker market in 2024 was characterized by high price levels with low volatility, supported by limited supply and increased demand from non-OPEC crude oil supply [172][173] Key Trends and Insights Container Shipping - In 2024, domestic container shipping demand remained weak, with a 1% year-on-year decline in throughput, while foreign trade container throughput grew by 9% [74] - Seasonal factors and high foreign trade activity led to a tightening of domestic shipping supply, with PDCI rising by 19.5% year-on-year by November [75] - The aging of domestic dry bulk vessels and the scrapping subsidy policy are expected to improve domestic shipping supply [89][9] Dry Bulk Shipping - The dry bulk market in 2024 was driven by traders' passive restocking, with iron ore prices declining and port inventories accumulating, indicating weak downstream demand [131][132] - Environmental regulations are expected to further limit effective supply, with older vessels experiencing a significant drop in utilization rates [108] - Fiscal stimulus and a potential global commodity bull market could catalyze a recovery in dry bulk shipping demand [109] Oil Tanker Shipping - The oil tanker market in 2024 was supported by limited supply and increased demand from non-OPEC crude oil, with VLCC rates averaging $41k/day, close to historical highs [173] - OPEC's production strategy and potential changes in 2025, along with Federal Reserve rate cuts, could further impact oil tanker demand [27][172] Regional and Structural Changes - In 2025, container shipping may face structural changes due to geopolitical factors, US trade policies, and alliance restructuring, with regional routes expected to benefit [43][153] - The restructuring of shipping alliances in 2025 is expected to enhance the status of Southeast Asian ports [43][155] Key Data and Metrics - The BDI index rose by 30.8% year-on-year by November 2024, with the BCI index up by 42.7% [18] - Domestic container throughput in 2024 fell by 1% year-on-year, while foreign trade container throughput grew by 9% [74] - VLCC rates in 2024 averaged $41k/day, close to historical highs [173] Future Outlook - For 2025, the shipping industry is expected to focus on sectors influenced by fiscal stimulus, sectors with rigid supply and elastic demand, and sectors with potential structural changes in demand [78][116] - The dry bulk market is expected to see accelerated recovery, driven by fiscal stimulus and a potential global commodity bull market [109] - The oil tanker market in 2025 will face a critical test of demand, with potential changes in OPEC production strategies and Federal Reserve rate cuts impacting the market [27][172]