ZJJH(600160) 群益证券·2024-12-24 07:38Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company (600160 SH) with a target price of RMB 28 [5] Core Views - The 2025 quota announcement indicates continued high prosperity in the refrigerant industry [5] - The company is a leading domestic fluorochemical enterprise with the largest refrigerant production quota in China and a complete fluorochemical industry chain [5] - The company is expected to benefit from the long-term prosperity of the industry with reasonable valuation in 2025 [5] - The supply contraction of third-generation refrigerants slightly exceeded expectations and the withdrawal of second-generation refrigerants will drive demand for third-generation refrigerants [5] - The company as a leading domestic refrigerant enterprise with leading national quotas will fully benefit from this prosperous market [9] Company Overview - The company's A-share price as of 2024 12 23 is RMB 24 00 with a total market capitalization of RMB 64 794 billion [5] - The company's major shareholder is Juhua Group Co Ltd holding 52 70% of shares [5] - The company's product mix includes refrigerants (35 4%) petrochemical materials (16 5%) basic chemical products (14 6%) and others (19 0%) [5] Industry Analysis - The 2025 HCFCs (second-generation refrigerants) quota is in line with market expectations with a total production quota of 163 600 tons a reduction of 51 200 tons compared to 2024 [5] - The 2025 HFCs (third-generation refrigerants) production quota is 791 900 tons slightly lower than the 801 600 tons in the September draft [5] - The R32 production quota for 2025 is 280 300 tons an increase of 40 800 tons compared to 2024 but lower than the 450 000 tons increase in the September draft [5] - The R134a production quota for 2025 is 208 300 tons a reduction of 7 400 tons compared to 2024 which was not included in the September draft [5] Financial Performance - The company's revenue is expected to grow from RMB 23 819 million in 2024E to RMB 30 424 million in 2026E [7] - Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders is forecasted to increase from RMB 2 146 million in 2024E to RMB 3 807 million in 2026E [7] - The company's EPS is projected to rise from RMB 0 79 in 2024E to RMB 1 41 in 2026E [9] - The company's PE ratio is estimated at 30x 21x and 17x for 2024E 2025E and 2026E respectively [9] Valuation and Recommendation - The report slightly raises the profit forecast expecting the company to achieve net profits of RMB 2 15 billion 3 12 billion and 3 8 billion in 2024 2025 and 2026 respectively [9] - The current A-share price corresponds to a PE of 30x 21x and 17x for 2024E 2025E and 2026E respectively with reasonable valuation in 2025 [9] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating [9]