宏观深度报告：利润周期重启，库存周期弱化——2025年度展望（十一）：中观行业

Group 1: Profit Cycle Insights - A new profit upcycle may begin in Q2 2025, following a 22-month profit cycle that started in early 2023, with the upcycle lasting approximately 11 months[1] - The current profit cycle is expected to be shorter than previous weak profit cycles, potentially only two-thirds the duration of past cycles, indicating a nearing end by mid-2025[1] - PPI is expected to remain weak but improve gradually, with a forecasted positive growth in Q4 2025, aligning with a recovery in corporate profits[1] Group 2: PPI and Profit Discrepancies - Since June 2023, PPI has shown a year-on-year increase, yet upstream industry profit shares have continued to decline, indicating a rare divergence between these metrics[2] - The divergence is attributed to a shift in the driving forces of PPI recovery from real estate to resilient export chains and internationally priced non-ferrous metals, leading to pressure on upstream profits[2] Group 3: Inventory Cycle Characteristics - The current inventory cycle exhibits a flattening characteristic, with actual inventory growth at the 31st percentile since 2010, indicating weak demand recovery[3] - After over a year of inventory replenishment, actual and nominal inventory growth has only increased by 15.2% and 9.6% respectively, reflecting low replenishment willingness among firms[3] Group 4: Sector-Specific Inventory Trends - Inventory replenishment is concentrated in upstream and midstream sectors, while downstream sectors remain in a passive replenishment phase, requiring policy support for improvement[4] - More than half of the industries have entered a replenishment phase, with export-related sectors actively replenishing, while domestic demand sectors like real estate are still lagging[4] Group 5: Industry Outlook for 2025 - The gradual implementation of tariffs may benefit certain industries, with expectations that over 60% of Trump's tariff commitments may not be fully realized, providing a window for "export grabbing" behavior[5] - Structural inventory replenishment in the U.S. is anticipated to positively impact China's export sectors, particularly in machinery and real estate-related industries[5]