【工程机械】2025年度策略：看好工程机械2025年国内外共振，矿山&电动化贡献新增长点

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, with expectations for the industry index to fluctuate between -5% and 5% relative to the benchmark over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the domestic excavator market is entering an upward cycle, with non-excavator segments expected to bottom out by 2025. The domestic earthmoving machinery is projected to recover first, with a year-on-year growth rate of around 20% from January to September 2024 [9][14]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the mining machinery market and the electric vehicle industry, suggesting that electric mining trucks may become a significant product in the future [10][11]. - The report forecasts a profit growth rate of approximately 30% for core manufacturers in 2025, indicating a favorable investment opportunity given the current low valuation levels [11][204]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market - The excavator market is expected to recover first, with small excavators driving demand due to increased municipal and rural water conservancy projects [32][49]. - The report anticipates a rebound in sales of medium and large excavators as the real estate and infrastructure sectors show signs of marginal recovery in 2025 [32][45]. - The report notes that the domestic market for earthmoving machinery is diverse, with applications in rural water conservancy, mining, and tunnel engineering, contributing to its early recovery [14][49]. Export Market - The report indicates that the decline in overseas demand is expected to narrow by 2025, with Chinese brands continuing to gain market share, particularly in regions like Indonesia, Africa, and South America [9][10]. - The report highlights that the Middle East is becoming an important trade partner for China's engineering machinery, with significant growth in exports driven by infrastructure and real estate demands [67][72]. New Directions - The report suggests a focus on the mining market, which is projected to grow significantly, with the global open-pit mining equipment market estimated at approximately $240 billion [10][129]. - The electric vehicle segment is highlighted as a key area for future growth, with advancements in battery technology and electric drive systems expected to drive the adoption of electric construction machinery [152][156]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, LiuGong, Shantui, and Hengli Hydraulic, citing their potential for profit growth and favorable market positioning [11][204].