MYL(600993) 海通国际·2024-12-25 00:23Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group with a target price of RMB 37.25 based on a 25X PE for 2025 [11][36] Core Views - Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group, established in 1582, focuses on anorectal health medicine and has expanded into medical services and pharmaceutical commerce, leveraging a 440-year heritage with products like Mayinglong Musk Hemorrhoids Ointment, forming a '1+4+X' product structure [1][92] - The company strategically focuses on core areas and expands into health products, with significant growth in eye care and hygiene products, leading to a 33.27% YoY increase in health revenue in H1 2024 [2][93] - The company's core anorectal products maintain steady growth, with revenue from the pharmaceutical industry expected to grow at 18.1%, 15.5%, and 13.3% from 2024 to 2026, with gross margins of 64.7%, 64.8%, and 64.9% respectively [4] - The medical services segment is expected to grow at 25.0%, 20.0%, and 18.0% from 2024 to 2026, with gross margins of 15.2%, 15.4%, and 15.6% respectively [13] - The pharmaceutical commerce segment is projected to grow at 5.0%, 4.0%, and 3.0% from 2024 to 2026, maintaining a gross margin of 8.9% [78] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected at RMB 3.61 billion, RMB 4.08 billion, and RMB 4.54 billion, with YoY growth of 15.1%, 12.9%, and 11.3% respectively [3] - Net profit for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is expected to be RMB 546 million, RMB 641 million, and RMB 738 million, with YoY growth of 23.3%, 17.3%, and 15.2% respectively [3][11] - EPS for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is forecasted at RMB 1.27, RMB 1.49, and RMB 1.71 respectively [3][11] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable, with 42.2%, 42.5%, and 42.7% from 2024 to 2026 [3] - ROE is projected at 13.3%, 13.5%, and 13.4% for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively [3] Business Strategy and Market Position - The company has optimized its distribution channels, reducing the number of first-tier distributors and enhancing cooperation with channel distributors, which is expected to improve channel control and operational capabilities [5][17] - Mayinglong holds a 48% market share in the hemorrhoid medication retail market, solidifying its position as a leading brand in the anorectal health sector [80] - The company has expanded its product portfolio to include functional skincare, hygiene products, functional foods, and medical devices, with significant growth in eye care and hygiene products [2] Historical Performance - From 2014 to 2023, the company achieved a revenue CAGR of 7.6% and a net profit CAGR of 9.2% [10] - In the first three quarters of 2024, revenue reached RMB 2.79 billion, up 14.13% YoY, while net profit was RMB 458 million, up 9.35% YoY [10][82]