纺织服装行业2025年度投资策略：周期趋平，杠杆弹性

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a clear investment rating for the industry [116] Core Views - The manufacturing sector is in a transition phase from passive destocking to active restocking, with potential for stock price and PE ratio recovery if valuation levels have not returned to pre-crisis levels and inventory-to-sales ratios are below normal [3] - The retail environment is improving, but the pace of restocking varies among companies [5] - The overseas inventory cycle has bottomed out, but the pace of restocking among brands is diverging, and retail recovery remains uncertain [12] - The manufacturing sector's order elasticity is still under observation due to the divergence in restocking pace and unclear retail recovery [12] - The industry is expected to shift from active destocking to passive destocking or active restocking in 2025, with the sector likely to show weak beta [53] Industry Performance and Trends - The textile and apparel industry has seen a decline in fund holdings, with a reduction in holdings for brand apparel and an increase for textile manufacturing [2] - The industry's inventory turnover days have returned to relatively normal levels, with most companies recovering to levels close to 2021 [29] - The industry's inventory levels are under pressure due to weak retail sales, with mid-to-high-end menswear and home textiles maintaining relatively stable inventory levels, while mid-to-high-end womenswear and mass apparel have higher inventory levels [61] - The industry's retail sales are under pressure due to weak consumer confidence, with various sub-sectors experiencing varying degrees of slowdown [52] - The industry's inventory turnover rate has declined, and the inventory cycle process will depend on the recovery of terminal retail sales [53] Company Performance and Strategies - Shenzhou International has grown into a leader in the knitted apparel segment by focusing on customer structure and product optimization, with core customer revenue contributions maintaining high growth from 2014 to 2023 [8] - Shenzhou International's revenue CAGR from 2005 to 2023 was 9.1%, with its scale advantage continuing to lead [25] - Shenzhou International's gross margin continued to rise before 2020 and has shown significant recovery in recent years [8] - Shenzhou International's fixed asset turnover rate and gross margin indicators are at relatively optimal levels [18] - Shenzhou International's overseas factory capacity accounted for ~53% of total capacity in 2023, with tax-saving effects gradually emerging [48] - Huali Group, Weixing Shares, and Jiansheng Group are among the high-quality manufacturers with scarce capacity, with revenue growth outpacing downstream brands and peers [39] - Huali Group, Weixing Shares, and Jiansheng Group are expected to see order fulfillment due to strong order certainty [39] - Shenzhou International's customer concentration (CR5) is 86%, indicating strong customer relationships [42] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector's order elasticity is still under observation due to the divergence in restocking pace and unclear retail recovery [12] - The manufacturing sector's valuation fluctuations are expected to stabilize, with a focus on companies with income and profit elasticity [69] - The manufacturing sector's profit elasticity is higher for companies with higher manufacturing expense ratios, with potential for profit recovery under improved capacity utilization [49] - The manufacturing sector's gross margin elasticity is stronger for labor-intensive finished product manufacturers, with potential for gross margin recovery under improved capacity utilization [43] - The manufacturing sector's capacity utilization rate is expected to improve, with potential for profit recovery for companies with higher manufacturing expense ratios [49] Brand Sector - The brand sector is expected to show weak beta, with a focus on companies with strong certainty and potential for recovery [77] - The brand sector's inventory and discounts are relatively healthy, with the industry's inventory levels under control after destocking in 2023 [58] - The brand sector's gross margin has returned to relatively optimal levels, but sales expense ratios remain high [76] - The brand sector's retail sales are under pressure due to weak consumer confidence, with various sub-sectors experiencing varying degrees of slowdown [52] - The brand sector's inventory turnover rate has declined, and the inventory cycle process will depend on the recovery of terminal retail sales [53] Sports Industry - The sports industry is under pressure due to weak consumer confidence, with functional and professional products not showing significant differences in product strength [95] - The sports industry is seeking new market channels and product categories, with a focus on outdoor and cost-effective products [95] - The sports industry's inventory turnover days remain healthy, with most companies recovering to levels close to 2021 [29] - The sports industry's retail sales are under pressure due to weak consumer confidence, with various sub-sectors experiencing varying degrees of slowdown [52] - The sports industry's inventory turnover rate has declined, and the inventory cycle process will depend on the recovery of terminal retail sales [53] Outdoor Market - The outdoor market is dominated by professional niche brands, with Anta Group having a significant advantage [68] - The outdoor market is seeing rapid growth, with Anta Group being the only mass sports brand in the top ten for sales of outdoor jackets on Tmall from January to October 2024 [68] - The outdoor market is seeing a rise in niche sports brands, with the industry's structure gradually becoming more fragmented [101] - The outdoor market's growth rate is much higher than that of functional and sports-inspired apparel, with market concentration gradually dispersing after 2022 [114] Marathon Market - The marathon market is seeing a rise in domestic brand share, with Xtep leading in wear rate among domestic brands [81] - The marathon market is seeing a rise in domestic brand share, with domestic brands accounting for over 65% of wear rate among elite runners [81] - The marathon market is seeing a rise in domestic brand share, with domestic brands further widening the gap with international brands in the elite runner community [81] - The marathon market is seeing a rise in domestic brand share, with domestic brands' influence in marathon events continuing to rise [81]