保险行业2025年度投资策略：疾风劲草，吹沙见金

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Life, New China Life, and China Pacific Insurance, indicating a positive outlook for these companies [5][13][14]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of the asset side, which is expected to drive an increase in insurance valuations. The liability side is less likely to be a drag on valuations, with the main logic for the industry stemming from effective asset recovery driven by policy support [2][8]. - The current industry configuration offers considerable value, with strong recommendations for companies with resilient asset sides, specifically China Life, New China Life, and the cost-effective property insurance leader, China Pacific Insurance [2][8]. Summary by Sections Review of 2024 - The insurance sector significantly outperformed the market, with the Longjiang Insurance Index rising by 42.9% from January to November 2024, compared to a 14.1% increase in the CSI 300 [20][36]. - Key players such as China Life, Ping An, China Pacific, and New China Life saw stock price increases of 51.2%, 39.2%, 47.9%, and 58.4%, respectively [20][36]. New Business Value Growth - New business value (NBV) growth for major insurers in the first three quarters of 2024 was robust, with China Life at 25.1%, Ping An at 31.6%, China Pacific at 37.9%, and New China Life at 79.2% [25][48]. - This growth is attributed to the integration of insurance and banking, leading to lower premium rates and a decrease in the preset interest rate [25]. Current Insurance Valuation - The report notes that the absolute valuation levels remain relatively pessimistic, with the implied long-term investment returns for major insurers like Ping An, China Pacific, and New China Life being below 3% [6][57]. - The current price-to-embedded value (PEV) ratios for major insurers are below 1, indicating that valuations are not excessively high compared to historical averages [58][89]. Regulatory Environment - Recent regulatory policies have removed barriers for insurance capital entering the market, enhancing the ability of insurance funds to invest [7][78]. - The new "National Ten Articles" policy is expected to benefit the insurance sector by improving product fee regulation and reducing liability costs, which will likely enhance the competitive positioning of leading insurers [38][78].