2025年中国宏观展望：中美博弈，消费修复

Economic Growth and Employment - GDP growth of 1 percentage point can create approximately 2.5 million jobs[1] - The GDP growth target for 2025 is suggested to be around 5% to align with economic stability[55] - The actual GDP growth in 2024 is projected to be around 5%[123] Consumption and Infrastructure Investment - Consumption is expected to shift from being a drag on growth to a driving force, with a potential increase in growth rate to 4-5%[129] - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to maintain high growth, with a suggested increase in stimulus of 1.5 trillion yuan to achieve a growth rate of around 10%[68] - Real estate investment decline is expected to narrow, with a projected decrease of about 5% in 2025[135] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The narrow deficit rate is expected to rise to around 4% in 2025, with special bonds increasing to 1.5-2 trillion yuan[59] - A reduction in interest rates by approximately 50 basis points is anticipated, with a potential reserve requirement ratio cut of 1 percentage point[151] - The fiscal policy is expected to be more proactive, with a focus on increasing government debt to support economic growth[148] Risks and Challenges - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions may impact export performance, with uncertainties surrounding trade policies[159] - Youth unemployment remains a significant issue, with the unemployment rate for 16-24 year-olds exceeding 16%[13] - The overall economic environment is subject to risks from policy implementation falling short of expectations and geopolitical tensions[48]