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美护行业25年年度策略报告:强者恒强,小而美赛道值得期待
中邮证券·2024-12-25 06:47

Industry Overview - The beauty and personal care sector has underperformed the broader market, with the Shenwan Beauty and Personal Care Index declining by 6.6% year-to-date as of December 23, 2024, compared to a 12.8% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [5] - The sector's PE-TTM ratio stands at 40.4x, up from 35.1x at the beginning of the year, but remains at a historically low level of 34% percentile [5] - Key outperformers include Juzi Biotech, Shanghai Jahwa, Marubi, Runben, and Jiangsu Wuzhong, while laggards include Betaine, Freda, Bloomage Biotech, Shuya, and Shanghai Jahwa [5] Cosmetics Sector - The cosmetics sector faces demand pressure, with year-to-date retail sales of cosmetics declining by 1.3% YoY to RMB 401.5 billion for the first 11 months of 2024 [10] - Domestic brands are outperforming foreign brands, with local brands in the top 20 online skincare brands growing by 36% YoY, compared to 2% for foreign brands [44] - Key growth areas include baby care, oral care, and personal care, with online sales growth rates of 16%, 13%, and 7% respectively from 2019 to 2023 [37] Medical Aesthetics Sector - The medical aesthetics sector remains a high-growth area, with recombinant collagen products maintaining a growth rate of over 90% in the first three quarters of 2024 [6] - Regenerative products, such as those from Huadong Medicine and Jiangsu Wuzhong, grew by 34% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024, significantly outperforming the industry [6] - New product approvals, including botulinum toxin, regenerative products, and hyaluronic acid, are expected to drive market innovation and growth in 2025 [6] Key Investment Themes - Focus on domestic brands with strong online presence and product innovation, particularly in baby care, oral care, and personal care [37] - Recombinant collagen and regenerative products are expected to maintain high growth, with market expansion driven by new product launches [6][119] - Companies with strong R&D capabilities and multi-brand strategies, such as Proya, Juzi Biotech, and Marubi, are well-positioned for long-term growth [37][109] Competitive Landscape - Domestic brands are gaining market share in skincare, with local brands accounting for 36% of the top 20 online skincare brands, compared to 12% for foreign brands [44] - In the medical aesthetics sector, companies like Juzi Biotech and Bloomage Biotech are leading in recombinant collagen and hyaluronic acid products, respectively [6][119] - The competitive landscape in the cosmetics sector is shifting, with domestic brands leveraging online platforms like Douyin to drive growth and market share [32][37]