2025美元债与外汇年度策略：繁花似锦，潜流暗涌

Economic Outlook - The U.S. Treasury yields are expected to remain in a downward trend, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate path showing uncertainty due to inflation and unemployment pressures[3] - Inflation is projected to hover around 2.5%-3.1% by the end of 2025, influenced by potential tariffs and economic policies[46] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to rise, indicating a cooling labor market, which may further impact inflation dynamics[49] Investment Strategy - The investment-grade U.S. dollar bond index is expected to yield 5.03%, while the high-yield index is projected at 15.16%, outperforming both domestic and U.S. credit bonds[10] - A credit downshift strategy is recommended, focusing on real estate and city investment bonds, while being cautious of trade risks and potential economic downturns[145] - The high-yield Chinese dollar bonds have recorded their best performance in nearly a decade, driven by improved liquidity and supportive domestic policies[12] Market Dynamics - The yield curve has steepened, with the 10-2 year spread recovering from -35 basis points to approximately 20 basis points, primarily due to rate cut expectations[8] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with potential supply shocks from the debt ceiling and trade tariffs influencing U.S. Treasury yields[3][88] - The dollar index is expected to maintain a strong oscillating position, influenced by tariff policies and geopolitical factors[25] Risk Factors - Key risks include unexpected Federal Reserve policy changes, geopolitical conflicts, and currency fluctuations that could exceed market expectations[5] - The potential for trade protectionism and a weakening U.S. labor market could heighten risk aversion in the market[26]