电力设备与新能源行业月报:电力、新能源行业月报
SINOLINK SECURITIES·2024-12-25 10:15

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the solar energy sector [78]. Core Insights - The solar industry is experiencing a price stabilization at the bottom, with various segments showing signs of recovery after a self-discipline meeting [5][22]. - November saw a significant increase in domestic installations, with new installations reaching 25.00 GW, a year-on-year increase of 17% and a month-on-month increase of 22% [43][66]. - The report highlights the resilience of domestic demand despite market expectations of a slowdown, indicating that installation demand may extend into the first half of 2025 [13][66]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Chain - After the self-discipline meeting, prices across multiple segments are stabilizing, with a notable recovery in the supply-demand relationship for silicon wafers [5][33]. - Silicon material prices have slightly decreased, while prices for 183N silicon wafers have increased due to improved supply-demand dynamics [6][7]. - The report indicates that the main segments of the solar industry are currently operating at a loss, with significant production cuts expected in silicon materials and components [42][64]. 2. Demand - Domestic installations in November were robust, with a total of 206.3 GW installed year-to-date, reflecting a 26% year-on-year increase [43][66]. - Exports of battery components reached 20.6 GW in November, showing a year-on-year increase of 12% but a month-on-month decrease of 14% [67][15]. 3. Bidding Data Tracking - The report notes an increase in bidding volumes for December, with a significant portion of projects specifying N-type components, which now account for 96% of the bidding projects [38][76]. - The average benchmark price for N-type components remained stable, indicating a balance in pricing amid fluctuating demand [19][47]. 4. Important Industry Events - The report mentions the upcoming launch of polysilicon futures on December 26, which is expected to aid in inventory digestion and price stabilization [49][48]. - The initial anti-dumping tax rates imposed on Southeast Asian countries are within expected ranges, which may influence future export dynamics [30][31].