半导体行业2025年度投资策略：如鱼跃渊，升腾化龙

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on AI and domestic substitution trends, indicating a favorable investment environment [2][462]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is viewed as a cornerstone of modern technology and a foundation for self-sufficiency, with a cyclical nature influenced by global economic fluctuations. After a significant downturn over the past two years, various segments of the semiconductor supply chain are beginning to recover. The report emphasizes that "AI + self-sufficiency" will be the primary investment direction for the semiconductor industry in 2025 [22][482][483]. - The core growth logic for semiconductors is driven by domestic substitution, especially in advanced manufacturing and semiconductor equipment, as external restrictions on China's semiconductor industry continue to intensify. This trend is expected to accelerate, particularly for companies that are making breakthroughs in advanced manufacturing [4][483]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Overview - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a gradual recovery after a two-year downturn, with signs of resilience in economic recovery supported by policies and AI empowerment [23][482]. - The report highlights the importance of AI in driving demand for semiconductors, particularly in high-performance computing (HPC) applications, which are expected to become the largest market segment by 2030 [324][482]. AI and Cloud Computing - The collaboration between cloud service providers and edge applications is anticipated to be a major narrative in the AI industry by 2025. The report notes that domestic AI chip manufacturers are catching up with international leaders, driven by increasing demand for AI applications [2][462]. - The report recommends focusing on companies like Cambricon and Haiguang Information, which are positioned to benefit from the domestic AI chip market growth [462]. Semiconductor Materials and Equipment - The semiconductor materials market is projected to recover in 2024, driven by increased demand from AI and high-performance computing applications. The report emphasizes the importance of domestic manufacturers in this space [117][483]. - The report indicates that the semiconductor equipment market in China is experiencing significant growth, with a focus on domestic substitution as a key growth path [375][401]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies involved in AI chip production and advanced packaging, such as Changdian Technology and Tongfu Microelectronics, as they are expected to see increased demand due to the growth of AI applications [462][463]. - The semiconductor industry is advised to focus on the development of advanced packaging technologies, which are crucial for the performance of AI chips [463].