东兴证券：东兴晨报-20241226

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a shift in the company's main drivers from direct retail supermarkets to bulk sales and e-commerce, with a current store penetration rate of 44% and a potential opening space of 81,000 stores nationwide [2][3] - The company is expected to see significant growth in its bulk snack channel, which is projected to account for approximately 25% of total revenue in the first half of 2024, driven by natural growth from brand store expansions, increased SKU counts, new strategic partnerships, and core product sales growth [3][4] - The total market size for the bulk snack industry is estimated to reach 210.6 billion yuan, with the company currently holding a market share of about 35% [3][4] Group 2 - The report forecasts the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 51.98 billion, 64.29 billion, and 76.49 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 6.45 billion, 8.27 billion, and 10.35 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 26.44%, 28.24%, and 24.9% [4] - The company is expected to maintain strong growth momentum through its expansion in Douyin, bulk sales, and distribution channels, indicating a robust long-term growth potential [4] Group 3 - The chemical industry is anticipated to see a marginal recovery in 2025, driven by improvements in supply-demand dynamics, with specific sub-sectors expected to present good investment opportunities [5][7] - The report highlights three major investment directions: sub-industries with improving supply-demand dynamics, leading enterprises driven by capital expenditure and R&D, and high-end chemical new materials benefiting from increased demand and domestic substitution [6][7][25] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the importance of the furniture retail sector, noting that the implementation of "old-for-new" subsidy policies has significantly improved sales figures, with a notable increase in retail values in October and November 2024 [69][70] - The anticipated continuation of subsidy policies into 2025 is expected to further support demand in the home furnishings market, particularly benefiting compliant and financially robust companies [71]