宏观深度报告：2025年度展望（十二）：可转债-论转债周期性魅力和新变化演绎

Market Outlook - The convertible bond market is experiencing a cyclical charm, with the potential for upward valuation if the positive expectations for underlying stocks persist and new catalysts emerge[1] - The 10-year government bond yield has dropped below 2%, indicating the complexity of the current economic cycle and increasing the difficulty of timing the next accumulation point[2] Investment Strategy - As the year-end approaches, funds preparing to accumulate and those looking to take profits should consider their allocation strategies[1] - The market has entered a third phase of small wave operations, with the median price of convertible bonds rising from around 70 to nearly 100 yuan[1] Risk Factors - A decline in market activity and unexpected liquidity contraction could negatively impact convertible bond valuations[3] - External market shocks and weak domestic demand could lead to unexpected corrections in the equity market[3] Market Dynamics - The "asset shortage" logic in the bond market may be challenged, necessitating close attention to liquidity conditions[1] - The supply side remains constrained, with underlying bonds gradually exiting the market, and unavoidable credit risk considerations may lead new funds to participate indirectly[1] Valuation Trends - The valuation of convertible bonds is expected to rise, but this will not be a linear process, with increased volatility and structural impacts anticipated[1] - The current premium for convertible bonds has recovered to around 20%, indicating a potential peak in the short term[1]