2025-装修建材触底年

Industry Investment Rating - Overweight (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The building materials industry is expected to bottom out in 2025, with a focus on renovation materials as the main theme [2] - Historical performance shows that earnings are key, with the building materials sector outperforming the CSI 300 by 11.3% in 2016 during a real estate recovery [2] - The 2025 outlook suggests opportunities in both cyclical and consumer sectors, but flexibility is required [2] Historical Performance Analysis - The 2014-2015 bull market saw significant gains across major indices, with the building materials sector rising by 159.03% [15] - During the 2014-2015 period, the building materials sector followed the broader market, with no significant outperformance until the final months [41] - Earnings in the building materials sector began to recover in Q2 2016, with substantial growth in Q3 and Q4, leading to a 11.3% outperformance over the CSI 300 for the year [56] 2025 Outlook for Building Materials - 2025 is expected to be the bottoming year for renovation materials, driven by policies promoting stable real estate markets and increased demand for second-hand home renovations [2] - Second-hand home transactions in 30 key cities increased by 2.3% YoY in the first 11 months of 2024, indicating a recovery in demand [2] - Renovation demand from second-hand homes and existing properties is expected to account for over 60% of the market by 2026 [2] Sector-Specific Insights Cement - Cement price increases in 2024 were driven by industry self-regulation rather than demand, with 2025 focusing on supply-side adjustments and infrastructure projects [2] - Cement demand in 2024 remained weak, with a 31% YoY decline in shipments and a 12% decline in direct supply to large infrastructure projects [119] Glass - Glass demand is expected to decline by 8% in 2025, with prices likely to fall before stabilizing after cold repairs [2] - Glass production capacity decreased by 7.2% YoY in 2024, with 44 production lines undergoing cold repairs [80] Fiberglass - Fiberglass supply remained loose in 2024, but industry coordination improved profitability, with structural opportunities in wind power and electronics expected in 2025 [2] - Wind power-related fiberglass demand is expected to grow significantly in 2025, driven by a 93% YoY increase in wind power project tenders in 2024 [98] Consumer Building Materials - Consumer building materials are expected to bottom out in 2025, supported by renovation subsidies, stockpiling policies, and second-hand home transactions [2] - Companies with strong pricing power and a focus on second-hand home renovations, such as Beixin Building Materials and Weixing New Materials, are recommended [2] Key Companies and Financials - Beixin Building Materials (000786.SZ): Buy rating, with EPS expected to grow from 2.09 in 2023 to 2.59 in 2026 [7] - Weixing New Materials (002372.SZ): Overweight rating, with EPS expected to grow from 0.90 in 2023 to 0.82 in 2026 [7] - China Jushi (600176.SH): Buy rating, with EPS expected to grow from 0.76 in 2023 to 0.89 in 2026 [7]