公用事业：广东公布年度长协电价，悲观预期不可线性外推

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [17]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the annual total electricity transaction volume in Guangdong for 2025 is projected to reach 3410.94 billion kWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.10%. The average transaction price is expected to be 0.39186 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 0.07376 yuan/kWh compared to the previous year [7][15]. - It emphasizes that the results of the Guangdong electricity pricing cannot be linearly extrapolated, as evidenced in 2024. The pressure on electricity prices is attributed to the mismatch between medium to long-term and spot prices, which could lead to a new round of market mechanism optimization if thermal power companies face losses again [13][15]. Summary by Sections Electricity Market Overview - The report notes that the significant increase in annual transaction volume is primarily due to power generation companies locking in a high proportion of annual long-term contracts to mitigate price risks in monthly and spot trading [15]. - The rapid decline in coal prices has directly impacted thermal power prices, with the Qinhuangdao port Q5500 coal price dropping to 759 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 184 yuan/ton [15]. Nuclear and Green Energy - The report indicates that nuclear power's negative impacts have been fully realized, with market prices for nuclear power expected to remain stable despite recent declines. The annual marketized electricity volume for nuclear power in 2025 is projected to be 27.3 billion kWh, a significant increase from the previous year [8]. - For green energy, the report states that the combined value of green electricity and environmental benefits is estimated at 0.39235 yuan/kWh, which, although lower than the benchmark price, is expected to have a limited impact on project returns due to the low market participation ratio [8]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on thermal power operators such as China Resources Power, Fuan Co., Huadian International, Guodian Power, China Power, Huaneng International, and coal-fired operators in the Yangtze River Delta. For hydropower, it suggests Longjiang Power, State Power Investment Corporation, and Huaneng Hydropower. In the context of new energy, it recommends Longyuan Power, Zhongmin Energy, China Nuclear Power, and Three Gorges Energy [3].