汽车：“以旧换新”刺激内需效果显著，借助新能源赛道自主品牌实现快速超车

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [4][7]. Core Viewpoints - In November 2024, domestic automobile sales reached 3.3163 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11.65%. Cumulative sales from January to November 2024 totaled 27.9378 million units, up 3.90% year-on-year. The significant increase in November sales is attributed to the "trade-in" policy, which is expected to continue benefiting sales in December [4]. - The "trade-in" policy has shown a remarkable effect on stimulating domestic demand, with expectations for its continuation in 2025. The policy was introduced in April 2024 and has seen increased subsidy standards since August [4]. - As of December 19, 2024, the total number of applications for scrapping and replacement subsidies exceeded 580,000 vehicles, indicating strong consumer engagement with the policy [4]. - The dealer inventory coefficient as of November 2024 was 1.11, lower than the average of 1.53 over the past 36 months, suggesting potential for inventory replenishment in 2025 [4]. - Domestic automobile exports from January to November 2024 reached 5.3427 million units, a year-on-year increase of 22.72%. However, export growth has slowed, particularly due to increased restrictions from Europe and Russia [4]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the domestic market has steadily increased, with sales reaching 11.2618 million units from January to November 2024, a year-on-year increase of 36.39% [5]. - The market share of domestic brands in passenger vehicles has risen to 65.06% as of November 2024, driven by the growth in the NEV sector [8]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - November 2024 domestic automobile sales were 3.3163 million units, up 11.65% year-on-year [4]. - Cumulative sales from January to November 2024 reached 27.9378 million units, reflecting a 3.90% increase [4]. Policy Impact - The "trade-in" policy has significantly stimulated demand, with expectations for its continuation into 2025 [4]. - Applications for scrapping and replacement subsidies have exceeded 580,000 vehicles as of December 19, 2024 [4]. Export Trends - Domestic automobile exports totaled 5.3427 million units from January to November 2024, up 22.72% year-on-year, but growth is slowing due to external restrictions [4]. New Energy Vehicle Market - NEV sales reached 11.2618 million units from January to November 2024, a 36.39% increase year-on-year [5]. - The penetration rate of NEVs has increased to 40.31% in 2024 [5]. - The market share of domestic brands in passenger vehicles has grown to 65.06% [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for domestic automobile brands, particularly those focusing on new energy and overseas markets, recommending attention to companies like BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Geely [6].