青岛啤酒：换届落地，看好来年复苏

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of the company [2][3] Core Insights - The company is undergoing a leadership transition with the appointment of Jiang Zongxiang as the new chairman, which is expected to initiate a new development cycle [1] - The beer industry is anticipated to recover in 2025, driven by the new management team and a rebound in restaurant consumption, which will positively impact beer sales [1] - The company has a strong shareholder return strategy, with dividend payout ratios of 47.6%, 66.2%, and 63.9% from 2021 to 2023, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [1] - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 project net profits of 44.3 billion, 50.1 billion, and 53.5 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 3.9%, 13.0%, and 6.7% respectively [1] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is expected to be 32.183 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of -5.2%, followed by 33.748 billion yuan in 2025 and 34.565 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 4.9% and 2.4% respectively [33] - The company's net profit for 2024 is estimated at 4.433 billion yuan, with growth rates of 3.9%, 13.0%, and 6.7% for the following years [33] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 3.25 yuan, increasing to 3.67 yuan in 2025 and 3.92 yuan in 2026 [33]