锂电池2025年度策略报告：库存&稼动率周期共振，新技术加速应用

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the power equipment and new energy industry, with a "Buy" recommendation [44] Core Views - The global new energy vehicle market is expected to see steady growth, with sales projected to reach 21.01 million units in 2025 and 23.63 million units in 2026, with penetration rates of 23.7% and 26.2% respectively [44] - The energy storage sector is expected to maintain high growth, with global energy storage shipments projected to reach 476 GWh in 2025, a 50% year-on-year increase [44] - The lithium battery industry is expected to see a reversal in supply and demand dynamics, with capacity utilization rates for batteries, electrolytes, and lithium iron phosphate (LFP) expected to improve significantly by 2025 [44] - New technologies such as solid-state batteries, silicon anodes, sodium-ion batteries, and composite current collectors are expected to achieve industrialization, with solid-state batteries potentially entering small-scale production by 2027 [44][92] Industry Overview New Energy Vehicles - China's new energy vehicle market continues to grow, with retail sales reaching 1.268 million units in November 2024, a 50.5% year-on-year increase [47] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the 100,000-200,000 RMB price range has reached 39.2%, while the penetration rate for vehicles priced above 200,000 RMB still has significant room for growth [48] - Europe's new energy vehicle market remains stable, with sales of 2.32 million units in the first 10 months of 2024, a slight decline of 0.9% year-on-year [27] - The US market is recovering, with sales of 1.148 million units in the first nine months of 2024, a 6% year-on-year increase [28] Energy Storage - Global energy storage demand is expected to remain strong, with Asia, Europe, and the Americas driving growth. Europe's large-scale energy storage installations are expected to surpass residential storage for the first time in 2024 [30] - China's energy storage market is driven by policy support, with large-scale storage projects expected to dominate the market [58] - Emerging markets such as the Middle East, Chile, and South Africa are seeing increased demand for energy storage due to renewable energy deployment and aging grid infrastructure [59] Lithium Battery Industry Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lithium battery industry is expected to see a reversal in supply and demand, with capacity utilization rates for batteries, electrolytes, and LFP expected to improve significantly by 2025 [44] - Capital expenditure growth in the battery industry has slowed, with growth rates for batteries, electrolytes, and LFP below demand growth rates [62] - Inventory levels in the battery industry have bottomed out in Q4 2023, and the industry is expected to enter an upward inventory cycle [36] Profitability and Capacity Utilization - Leading companies such as CATL and BYD maintain a stable profit margin advantage over second-tier companies, with ROE levels for second-tier companies ranging from -5% to 5% [7] - Capacity utilization rates for batteries, electrolytes, and LFP are expected to reach 63%, 87%, and 80% respectively by Q4 2025 [62] - The lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) industry is expected to see capacity utilization rates exceed 80% by Q4 2025, potentially leading to price increases [67] New Technologies - Solid-state batteries are expected to enter small-scale production by 2027, with sulfide and halide electrolytes showing the most promise for all-solid-state batteries [71][92] - Sodium-ion batteries are expected to achieve cost parity with lithium-ion batteries by 2026, with advantages in low-temperature performance and safety [95] - Composite current collectors, particularly aluminum foil, have already been adopted in consumer electronics and electric vehicles, with copper foil expected to see cost reductions of 20-30% in the future [75] Key Companies - The report highlights key companies in the lithium battery industry, including CATL, BYD, Tianci Materials, Duofluoride, Hunan Yuneng, and Putailai, among others [44][97] - These companies are expected to benefit from the recovery in the lithium battery industry and the industrialization of new technologies [97]