交通运输行业2025年投资展望：稳中求进，优选供需改善板块

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the transportation industry in 2025, emphasizing the selection of sectors with improving supply-demand dynamics [26][45]. Core Insights - The transportation industry has experienced a notable trend of increasing volume and decreasing prices throughout the year, significantly influenced by consumer downgrade [6][17]. - The report highlights that the demand for stable returns is a long-term trend, with the current interest rate reduction cycle enhancing the safety margin for high-dividend highway stocks [3][29]. - The report suggests focusing on sectors with expected supply-demand improvements and high earnings certainty, particularly those benefiting from the interest rate reduction cycle [7][46]. Summary by Sections Industry Review and Outlook - The transportation industry has seen a clear trend of volume increase and price decrease, with consumer downgrade playing a crucial role in this change [17][39]. - The industry is expected to gradually shift from oversupply to a balanced supply-demand situation, with profit elasticity likely to be released [5][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of recognizing price competition and the need for policy regulation to address potential challenges in 2025 [27][45]. Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of price competition, with performance differentiation among companies becoming more pronounced [2][66]. - The report notes that the growth of low-priced items has exceeded market expectations, leading to a renewed focus on market share by leading companies like Zhongtong [28][50]. - The competition will likely intensify in 2025, as major players re-engage in the battle for market share, potentially increasing the intensity of price wars [71][72]. Highway Sector - The highway sector is benefiting from its strong cash flow and high dividend characteristics, attracting continuous market attention [9][29]. - The report indicates that the valuation of highway stocks is improving due to the reassessment of toll revenue and the decline in risk-free interest rates [29][60]. - The sector is currently in a high-certainty upward cycle, with increasing focus on dividend payouts [9][60]. Aviation Sector - The aviation industry is experiencing slow demand recovery, with low growth in supply expected to gradually alleviate oversupply issues [29][31]. - The report highlights that passenger load factors have significantly improved compared to previous years, although ticket prices remain lower than pre-pandemic levels [10][38]. - The report suggests that the valuation of aviation stocks may be better reflected through operating cash flow metrics rather than traditional PE and PB ratios [31][46].