11月宏观数据偏弱+资金面走弱推动短债补涨曲线陡峭：海内外央行干扰下，债市情绪未散交易盘与配置盘仍可能继续推升债市

Economic Indicators - In November, China's retail sales growth weakened to 3.0% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in October[49] - The industrial output growth for November was reported at 5.4% year-on-year, showing slight improvement[49] - Fixed asset investment growth year-to-date was 3.3% as of November, indicating a slowdown[49] Monetary Policy Insights - The bond market is pricing in an implied interest rate cut of approximately 30 basis points (bp) by the central bank[12] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been actively conducting net bond purchases, indicating a continued accommodative monetary stance[12] - The market sentiment remains optimistic, with a consensus that the central bank is unlikely to cut rates in December[19] Market Trends - The yield on 10-year government bonds has dropped below 2.0%, reflecting a significant decline of over 25 bp in the past two weeks[19] - Short-term funding conditions have eased, leading to a steepening of the yield curve, which is expected to support long-term bond prices[19] - The market is currently characterized by a reluctance to take positions, with investors cautious about both selling and buying[19] International Context - The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut rates by 25 bp aligns with market expectations, but future rate cuts may be limited due to stable economic indicators[26] - The divergence in monetary policy between the U.S. and China is creating pressure on the RMB, with potential depreciation risks[19]