旺季备货已至，LPG相对走强 LPG周报 2025年9月14日 姓名：肖海明 从业资格号：F3075626 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0018001 联系电话： 0531-81678601 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 期货交易咨询： PART 01 LPG行情回顾 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 主要观点 行情回顾 国内液化气市场趋势震荡。民用气市场，国产气供应水平提升，不过幅度有限对市场利空影响并不明 显，山东区域受进口气集中到港影响 价格走跌；燃烧需求依旧表现一般，下游消化库存对高价观望，华中地区 部分企业出货不佳价格走跌；其他区域供需面表现良好，价格小 幅走高。烯烃碳四市场，虽然国际原油价格上 涨，但终端油品需求不佳导致组分原料价格下跌，下游装置利润持续亏损，且化工需求下降 而供应增加，供需 面放宽打压市场走势。丙烷CP预期均价为545美元/吨，较上期涨14美元/吨，环比上涨2.64%；丁烷CP预期均价为525 美 元/吨，较上期涨14美元/吨，环比上涨2.74%； 逻辑与观点 LPG近期走势较强，国际 ...

市场情绪转弱，盘面继续走弱 中泰期货聚乙烯产业链周报 2025年9月14日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 近期市场主要矛盾 4 总结及展望 3 基差及价差 2 聚乙烯产业情况 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 聚乙烯市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 1、聚乙烯综述 | | | 上 | 周 | 本 | 周 | | 周环比 | | 下 | 周 | 下下周 | | 综 述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 产 量 （万吨） | 国产量 检修损失量 | 63 . | 25 | 61 . | 28 | ...

供需压力仍大，继续偏弱震荡 中泰期货聚丙烯产业链周报 2025年9月14日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 近期市场主要矛盾 4 总结及展望 3 聚丙烯基差价差 2 聚丙烯供需情况 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 聚丙烯市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 1、聚丙烯综述 | | | 上 | 周 | 本 | 周 | | 周环比 | | 下 | 周 | 下下周 | | | 综 述 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 产 量 | 国产量 | 81 . | 40 | 78 . ...

港口持续累库，甲醇偏弱震荡 中泰期货甲醇产业链周报 2025年9月14日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 现货市场 4 行情预期 3 产业链利润 2 基差价差 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 逻辑观点 近期甲醇基本面仍然偏弱，虽然内地荣信一期甲醇装置停车，港口下游MTO兴兴开车等利多因素兑现， 但盘面仍受至于偏高的库存，价格表现持续偏弱。 我们认为甲醇基本面环比有好转预期，但自身供应压力还是比较大，下游MTO开车以后能否有效去库 是比较重要的关键点。长期来看甲醇可能仍需要等待买入时机，我们建议震荡偏弱思路对待，前期空单考虑 离场，多单建议等待更低价位或者驱动明确。 单边策略：震荡偏弱思路，前期空单离场。多单建议等待更低价位或者驱动明确。 对冲策略：观望。 风险因素：地缘政治局势突变导致伊朗甲醇出口受阻 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2012]112 2025-09-14 中泰期货生猪市场周度报告 联系电话： 0531-81678626 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 公司网址： www.ztqh.com 姓名：朱殿霄 从业资格号：F3079229 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0018269 一 数据概览及行情观点 数据概览及行情策略 | 维 度 | 指 标 标猪全国均价 | 单 位 元/公斤 | 本 期 13.26 | 上 期 13.72 | 涨 跌 -0.46 | 涨跌幅 -3.35% | 解析与预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 标猪河南均价 | 元/公斤 | 13.47 | 13.98 | -0.51 | -3.65% | 本周现货市场价格大幅回落，钢联数据显示全国毛猪均价13 .26元/公斤， 环比上周下跌0 .46元/公斤。各区域现货市场走势分化，低价区广西标猪 均价仅有12 .43元/公斤。 | | | 标猪广西均价 | 元/公斤 | 12.43 | 13.33 | -0.9 | -6.75% ...

中泰期货PVC烧碱产业链周报 PVC + NAOH + CL 2025年9月14日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 现货市场 4 行情预期 3 产业链利润 2 基差价差 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 PVC综述及平衡表 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） PVC供需小结 | | | 上 | 周 | 本 | 周 | | 周环比 | 下 周 | 下下周 | 思 路 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 总产量 | 46 . | 19 | 47 . | 88 | 1 . | 69 | 44 87 . | 46 92 . | 本周产量略微增加 渤 ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/9/12 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | | 氧化铝 | 合成橡胶 | 五债 | | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 燃油 | 三十债 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | | 沥青 | 白糖 | 上证50股指期货 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 尿素 | PTA | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | | 红枣 | 乙二醇 | 中证500股指期货 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 塑料 | 对二甲苯 | 十债 | | | 客服电话： | | 纯碱 | 烧碱 | 二债 | | | | | 液化石油气 | 短纤 | 铝 | | | 400-618-6767 | | 原油 | 瓶片 | 苹果 | | | | | 锌 | 棉花 | | ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 9 月 11 日 | 联系人：王竣冬 | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | --- | --- | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | | [Table_QuotePic] | 中泰微投研小程序 | | [Table_Report] | 中泰期货公众号 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 - 2 - 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Finance] 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | 偏空 | 農荡 | 偏多 | | --- | --- | --- | | 橡胶 | 护锌 | 锰硅 | | 글 = | 聚丙烯 | 热轧卷板 | | 护金 | 玻璃 | 焦煤 | | 沪铝 | 甲醇 | 豆粕 | | 菜粕 | 沪铝 | 菜油 | | 鸡蛋 | 玉米淀粉 | 直海 | | 标欄油 | PTA | 焦炭 | | | РУС | | | | 护锡 ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 9 月 10 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 農药 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 原油 | 橡胶 | 对二甲苯 | | | | 氧化铝 | 五债 | PTA | | | | 液化石油气 | 二债 | 短纤 | | | | 合成橡胶 | 沥青 | 铝 | | | | 玉米 | 燃油 | 鸡蛋 | | | | 纯碱 | 沪深300股指期货 | 苹果 | | | | 红枣 | 中证1000指数期货 | 硅铁 | | | | 塑料 | 中证500股指期货 | | | | | 甲醇 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | | 焦炭 | 十债 | | | | | 焦煤 | 三十债 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro - Financial**: Short - term stock index futures may fluctuate, and long - term investors can consider buying on dips; for treasury bond futures, consider buying on dips to bet on future monetary policy easing [7][8]. - **Black Metals**: Steel may maintain a volatile market, iron ore can be lightly shorted; coking coal and coke prices may continue to fall from high levels in the short term; for ferroalloys, go long on silicon iron 10 - contract and short manganese silicon on rebounds in the medium - long term; for soda ash, maintain a short - selling strategy on rallies, and for glass, wait and see [10][12][13]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Aluminum can be bought on dips, alumina can be shorted on rallies; zinc prices will fluctuate downward; lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely in the short term; industrial silicon will continue to oscillate within a narrow range [17][18][19]. - **Agricultural Products**: Zhengzhou cotton may continue to be under pressure in the short term; sugar may rebound in the short term but has downward pressure in the medium - short term; for eggs, trade with a volatile mindset; buy apples on dips; short corn 01 - contract on rallies; short jujubes on rallies; for live pigs, short near - month contracts on rallies and consider long 01 - contract in the medium - long term [24][27][30]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: For crude oil, consider shorting on rallies; fuel oil prices will follow crude oil; plastics will maintain a relatively strong volatile trend in the short term; rubber can hold long positions and reduce some on further rallies; methanol should be traded with a volatile mindset; caustic soda should be treated with a volatile view; asphalt follows crude oil; for the polyester industry chain, consider buying on dips; liquefied petroleum gas should be held with a long - term bearish view; paper pulp should observe port de - stocking and spot transactions; for logs, consider light - long positions on dips if conditions are met [35][36][37]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - China's goods trade进出口总值 in August was 3.87 trillion yuan, up 3.5% year - on - year. From January to August, the total value was 29.57 trillion yuan, up 3.5% year - on - year [4]. - Two departments promote the high - quality development of "AI + energy", aiming to initially build an innovation system by 2027 [4]. - On September 8, the application for child - rearing subsidies was fully opened [4]. - After the "8·8" property market policy in Beijing, the transaction volume of new and second - hand houses increased in August, and the market is expected to maintain the trend in September [4]. - In August, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars were 1.101 million, up 7.5% year - on - year and 11.6% month - on - month, with a penetration rate of 55.2% [5]. - The French government failed the confidence vote, and the prime minister will submit his resignation [5]. - Multiple institutions predict that the US employment data may be significantly revised downward [5]. - Trump's 50% tariff on India may drag down its GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points [5]. - As of September 8, the issuance of new special bonds in China reached 3.3822 trillion yuan, accounting for 76.9% of the annual plan [5]. Macro - Financial Stock Index Futures - Short - term trading may be volatile, and long - term investors can consider buying on dips. On Monday, A - shares were divided, with nearly 4000 stocks rising. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.38% to 3826.84 points, and the trading volume was 2.46 trillion yuan. Overseas, non - farm data was lower than expected, and the market is discussing a possible 50bp rate cut by the Fed in September [7]. Treasury Bond Futures - Consider buying on dips to bet on future monetary policy easing. The money market tightened, and the bond market fell. The release of weak foreign trade data may contribute to future monetary easing. The bond market may perform well in September [8]. Black Metals Steel and Iron Ore - Policy has limited impact on steel supply and market. The peak season may not be prosperous due to limited downstream demand. Steel may maintain a volatile market, and iron ore can be lightly shorted. After the parade, steel production recovered, and iron ore prices were relatively strong, while downstream demand was weak [10][11]. Coking Coal and Coke - Prices may continue to fall from high levels in the short term. After the parade, supply may gradually recover, but the "anti - involution" expectation has re - emerged. The supply of coking coal may be restricted in the medium term, and the demand from steel mills is strong but may decline. The first round of coke price cuts has started, weakening market sentiment [12]. Ferroalloys - Silicon iron supply has returned to a high level, and there is limited room for further increase. Manganese silicon will have new capacity in the fourth quarter. The spread between silicon iron and manganese silicon may widen. Go long on silicon iron 10 - contract and short manganese silicon on rebounds in the medium - long term [13]. Soda Ash and Glass - Glass rose, and soda ash followed. For soda ash, short on rallies; for glass, wait and see. The supply of soda ash is high, and the demand from the photovoltaic industry is good. The glass market is affected by the expected fuel upgrade in the main production areas [14]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum can be bought on dips due to expected consumption recovery and potential inventory reduction, but be cautious due to weak downstream confidence. Alumina has high supply and inventory, and its price is under pressure, so short on rallies [17]. Shanghai Zinc - Social inventory is increasing, and the inventory inflection point has arrived. With rising processing fees, smelters are resuming production, and zinc prices will decline as the industry enters the off - season and downstream demand is weak [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply and demand are both strong, and the price is supported by a supply - demand gap, but there is insufficient driving force for continuous increase, so it will fluctuate widely in the short term [19]. Industrial Silicon - It may have a small adjustment pressure in the short term and will continue to oscillate within a narrow range. The resumption of production of leading factories in Xinjiang is the core contradiction, and inventory reduction is expected after the southwest region cuts production in the dry season [20]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton may be under pressure in the short term due to new cotton supply and weak demand. Globally, cotton production and inventory are changing. In China, cotton imports have decreased, and the spot price is firm, but the downstream demand is still weak [24][25][26]. Sugar - It may rebound in the short term but has downward pressure in the medium - short term. Globally, there is a supply surplus. In China, imports are increasing, and domestic demand is weakening [27][28][29]. Eggs - The laying hen inventory is high, and the probability of a short - term market reversal is low. However, due to the peak season, the spot price is strong in the short term. Futures have the logic of capacity reduction, so trade with a volatile mindset [30]. Apples - Buy on dips. The price of early - maturing apples is high, and the price of late - maturing apples is affected by the early - maturing and old - season apples [31]. Corn - Short the 01 - contract on rallies. The domestic corn price is divided. In the northeast, the price is rising due to low inventory, while in the north - central region, it is falling due to sufficient supply [32]. Jujubes - Short on rallies. The price in the production area is stable, and the price in the sales area is mainly stable with some high - quality products rising [33]. Live Pigs - Short near - month contracts on rallies and consider long 01 - contract in the medium - long term. The short - term market has a "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern, and the supply pressure is high before the holidays [33]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Consider shorting on rallies. OPEC + is increasing production, and the market may enter a supply - surplus pattern. Pay attention to the US - Russia negotiation and OPEC + quota [35]. Fuel Oil - Prices will follow crude oil. The short - term trading will focus on supply and geopolitics, and the low - sulfur and high - sulfur fundamentals are affected by different factors [35]. Plastics - Polyolefins have high supply pressure and will be weak in terms of supply - demand. However, the market sentiment is boosted by rumors of anti - involution policies, and it will maintain a relatively strong volatile trend in the short term [36]. Rubber - Hold long positions and reduce some on further rallies. The market sentiment is improved by the poor US non - farm data and policy rumors. The supply of raw materials is tight [37]. Methanol - Trade with a volatile mindset. The port inventory is increasing, but the market is affected by rumors of device shutdowns and new device startups [38]. Caustic Soda - Treat with a volatile view. After the parade, the supply - demand situation in Shandong may improve, but the market sentiment is affected by factors such as the increase in alumina enterprises' liquid caustic soda purchases [38]. Asphalt - Follows crude oil. It has entered the seasonal peak demand season, and the inventory is at a critical stage [39][40]. Polyester Industry Chain - Consider buying on dips. After a sharp decline, there is a repair demand. The supply - demand situation of PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol is different [41]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Hold a long - term bearish view. It follows crude oil prices and is affected by import volume. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak [42]. Paper Pulp - Observe port de - stocking and spot transactions. The port inventory is still high, and the spot trading is weak [43]. Logs - Consider light - long positions on dips if the price - holding and downstream orders are good. The spot price is stable, and the foreign price of logs has decreased [44]. Urea - Hold a bearish view. The domestic demand is weak, and the futures price is higher than the spot price, showing a downward - oscillating trend [45]. Synthetic Rubber - Reduce long positions on further rallies and look for low - buying opportunities. The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and it will continue to oscillate. Pay attention to policies, device changes, and downstream purchasing sentiment [46].