| 2025/12/17 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 農あ | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | PTA | 沥青 | 尿素 | | | | 中证500股指期货 | 十债 | 多晶硅 | | | | 短纤 | 上证50股指期货 | 合成橡胶 | | | | 乙二醇 | 烧碱 | 硅铁 | | | | 瓶片 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | | 对二甲苯 | 五债 | | | | | 中证1000指数期货 | 三十债 | | | | | 白糖 | 二债 | | | | | 原油 | 工业硅 | | | | | 纸浆 | 橡胶 | | | | | 锰硅 | 棉花 | | | | | 鸡蛋 | 棉纱 | | | | | 悠油 | 幸 | | | | | 锌 | 红枣 | | | | | 液化石油气 | 胶版印刷纸 | | | | | | 原木 | | | | | | 热轧卷板 | | | | | | 铁矿石 | | | | | | 纯碱 | | | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 玻璃 | | ...

晨会纪要 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 12 月 16 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 2025/12/16 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農药 | 農筋偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 炊油 | 沥青 | 棉纱 | | | | 原油 | 橡胶 | 合成橡胶 | | | | 白糖 | 二债 | 棉花 | | | | 三十债 | 焦炭 | 多晶硅 | | | | 十债 | 焦煤 | 硅铁 | | | | 五债 | 鸡蛋 | 甲醇 | | | | 锰硅 | 红枣 | | | | | 液化石油气 | 塑料 | | | | | 尿素 | 玻璃 | | | | | 锌 | 纯碱 | | | | | 铝 | 碳酸锂 | | | | | 中证500股指期货 | 纸浆 ...

晨会纪要 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 12 月 15 日 | 联系人：王竣冬 | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | --- | --- | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | | [Table_QuotePic] | 中泰微投研小程序 | | [Table_Report] | 中泰期货公众号 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Finance] 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | 偏空 | 農荡 | 偏多 | | --- | --- | --- | | 들 = | 玉米淀粉 | 菜粕 | | 郑棉 | 玻璃 | 豆粕 | | 护金 | 橡胶 | 菜油 | | 沪铝 | 铁矿石 | 白糖 | | 沪铝 | 聚丙烯 | 直一 | | 棕櫚油 | PVC | 焦炭 | | 玉米 | 甲醇 | 沥青 | | | 塑料 | | | | PTA | | | | 鸡蛋 | | | | 螺纹钢 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PVC, the upstream is suffering severe losses with the price slightly weakening and comprehensive profit deteriorating, which may lead to potential production cuts. The downstream has a weak operating rate, and the trading volume is mainly concentrated on low - price point - price orders. The mid - stream traders are cautious, with a slight increase in the sentiment of bottom - fishing. The export volume is stable, and the inventory situation is complex, with some signs of de - stocking expected based on current production and apparent demand [6][9][10]. - For caustic soda, the overall production is at a high level, with a small increase in production this week. The inventory is slightly reduced this week, but it is estimated to accumulate slightly next week. The price is weakening, and the profit of the chlor - alkali complex is deteriorating. Traders are cautious, and the downstream demand is relatively stable [100][101][103]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. PVC 1.1 Supply - This week's total PVC production is 48.91 tons, a slight decrease from last week. The ethylene - based production is 14.53 tons, and the calcium - carbide - based production is 34.38 tons. Next week, as some maintenance devices resume production, the production is expected to increase slightly. The import volume remains stable at 1.50 tons per week, and the export volume is 5.75 tons per week, but the export signing volume has slightly declined this week [6]. - There are multiple PVC production devices under maintenance or shut - down, including Shandong Dongyue, Wuhai Chemical, etc. Some devices are expected to resume production in the near future, such as Zhengyang Development's device which is expected to resume on December 13, 2025 [13]. 1.2 Demand - This week's apparent PVC demand is 44.00 tons, slightly lower than expected. The expected apparent demand for next week is 47.63 tons. The demand has some seasonal increments in December, but the weekly apparent demand tracking is worse than expected [6]. 1.3 Price and Basis - The PVC spot price has slightly weakened this week. The basis of calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China, South China, and Shandong has strengthened, and the 1 - 5 spread has also strengthened [9]. 1.4 Profit - The production profit of calcium - carbide in Shaanxi has increased by 50 yuan/ton, while the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali and the profit of PVC production in Northwest China have continued to deteriorate. The export profit has slightly improved [9]. 1.5 Inventory - This week, the old - sample inventory has increased by 0.66 tons, and if calculated based on the current production and apparent demand, it is expected to slightly reduce inventory next week. The inventory of mid - stream traders has decreased by 1.19 tons, while the new - sample inventory has increased by 0.04 tons. The upstream inventory has increased by 1.85 tons [6]. 2. Caustic Soda 2.1 Supply - This week's total caustic soda production is 84.85 tons, a slight increase from last week. Next week, the production is expected to remain high. The import volume is stable at 0.02 tons per week, and the export volume is 7.30 tons per week [101]. 2.2 Demand - This week's apparent demand for caustic soda is 79.87 tons, higher than last week. Next week, the apparent demand is estimated to be around 77.53 tons based on historical data [101]. 2.3 Price and Basis - The price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong has weakened to 675 yuan/ton. The basis of caustic soda has generally weakened, and the spread between different contracts shows different trends [7][103]. 2.4 Profit - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong has decreased by 145 yuan/ton, and the profit of supporting PVC - type enterprises has continued to deteriorate [103]. 2.5 Inventory - This week, the national caustic soda inventory has slightly decreased, but it is estimated to accumulate slightly next week based on static data. The liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong has decreased by 4.77 tons, and the flake caustic soda inventory has slightly increased [101].

| | | 筐 | 万吨 | | 雄鉄 | | 万吨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地区 | 周产 | 环比(吨) | 累计同比 | 地区 | 周产 | 环比(吨) | 累计同比 | | 全国 | 18.92 | 1295 | (15.04) | 全国 | 10.63 | (2520) | 0.95 | | 内蒙古 | 9.69 | 140 | (0.40) | 内蒙古 | 3.61 | (1925) | 3.91 | | 宁夏 | 4.33 | 1400 | 12.43 | 宁夏 | 2.72 | 0 | 10.21 | | 广西 | 0.92 | (245) | 0.39 | 陕西 | 1.93 | 350 | (0.14) | | 贵州 | 1.21 | 0 | (16.56) | 青海 | 1.29 | (945) | (13.49) | | 云南 | 0.68 | 0 | 13.21 | 甘肃 | 0.98 | 0 | 10.70 | | 其他 | 2.09 | | (24.11) | 其他 | 0.01 | (2) | ...

晨会纪要 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 12 月 12 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/12/12 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 铅 | 中证500股指期货 | 锌 | | | | | 燃油 | 中证1000指数期货 | 十债 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 液化石油气 | 沪深300股指期货 | 三十债 | | | | | 乙二醇 | 上证50股指期货 | 红枣 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 瓶片 | 棉纱 | 碳酸锂 | | | 客服电话： | | 短纤 | 五债 | 多晶硅 | | | | | 对二甲苯 | 棉花 | | | | 400-618-6767 | | 原油 | 二债 | | | | | | PTA | 白糖 | | | | 公司网址： | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, various sectors in the market show different trends and investment opportunities under the influence of macro - economic policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical factors. The macro - economic environment is complex, with the Fed's monetary policy adjustments, China's economic data changes, and geopolitical events all affecting the market [5][6]. - Different commodities have different outlooks. For example, some are expected to be in a wide - range shock, some may continue to decline, while others may have short - term rebounds or long - term upward trends depending on their specific supply - demand and cost situations [12][14][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the third time this year, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%–3.75%. It will start a short - term Treasury purchase program of about $40 billion per month from December 12. The Fed also raised its GDP growth expectations for 2025 - 2028 [5]. - China's November CPI rose 0.7% year - on - year, hitting the highest since March 2024, and the core CPI rose 1.2% year - on - year. The PPI rose 0.1% month - on - month but widened its year - on - year decline to 2.2% [6]. - The IMF expects China's economy to grow 5.0% and 4.5% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, raising the forecasts by 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points compared to October [7]. 3.2 Macro Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market showed a trend of hitting bottom and rebounding. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.23% at 3900.5 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.29%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.02%. The market turnover was 1.79 trillion yuan. Adopt a wide - range shock strategy and pay attention to the coordination of volume and price [12]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - If there is a consensus on the decline of the capital - level center, short - and medium - term bonds may stabilize and rebound first, while the ultra - long - term bonds are neutral in the short term and still need caution in the medium term [13]. 3.3 Black Commodities 3.3.1 Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may be in a short - term weak shock. In the future, pay attention to the production of coal mines, safety supervision, and the change of downstream molten iron output. Due to factors such as the approaching end of the year and environmental protection, coal production is expected to shrink, but the weakening demand for steel in the off - season restricts the price increase [14]. 3.3.2 Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, it is recommended to take a long - at - low strategy; for silicomanganese, a short - at - high strategy in the medium term. The fundamentals of the two have limited changes recently, and pay attention to the price changes of raw materials and the impact of steel mill procurement [15]. 3.3.3 Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes. The soda ash industry has a supply recovery but weak upstream production willingness, while the glass industry has an increasing expectation of cold repair of production lines [16]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to be in a wide - range shock. As of December 8, the domestic zinc inventory decreased. With frequent macro - positive news and an open export window, zinc prices may be supported, but weak downstream consumption drags them down. Aggressive investors can short at high prices [16]. 3.4.2 Lead - Short - term lead prices may remain in shock, and there is a risk of the center of operation moving down. As of December 8, the lead inventory decreased, but the factory inventory of primary lead enterprises increased. It is recommended to hold short positions [18]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, it is mainly in a wide - range shock. Although the demand is slightly weakening, the long - term demand is good, and the supply is increasing, limiting the short - term price increase space [20]. 3.4.4 Industrial Silicon - In the short term, it is difficult to see production cuts. Pay attention to the impact of environmental protection in Xinjiang and coking coal price fluctuations at the end of the month. The subsequent focus may shift to the expectation of polysilicon production cuts [22]. 3.4.5 Polysilicon - The spot price is expected to be strong, and the policy expectation has a strong impact on the price. Pay attention to the follow - up actions of the platform company [23]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - There is a short - term supply surplus, but the demand expectation is improving. The high - cost factor supports the Zhengzhou cotton price. Look for opportunities to go long at low prices during the short - term adjustment [25]. 3.5.2 Sugar - The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is expected to be bearish. New sugar listing pressure weighs on prices, but cost support limits the decline. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [27]. 3.5.3 Eggs - Before the festival, the spot price increase may be limited. The near - month contracts are dragged down by the weak spot, while the far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of a possible decline in inventory but are currently over - valued. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [29]. 3.5.4 Apples - The price is expected to be in shock. The trading in the production area has slowed down, and the sales in the sales area are affected by the listing of citrus fruits [31]. 3.5.5 Corn - Pay attention to the change of spot prices and short at high prices. The current upward trend of corn is due to the "supply - demand mismatch," which is gradually alleviating [32]. 3.5.6 Red Dates - Consider going long on far - month contracts at low prices. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable and strong, and the futures price is in shock [33]. 3.5.7 Pigs - The spot market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to hold short positions in near - month contracts and pay attention to risk control [34]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - The current rebound of crude oil lacks sustainable driving force. Pay attention to the US sanctions on Venezuela. The price is mainly in shock [37]. 3.6.2 Plastics - Polyolefins have a large supply pressure. Adopt a weak - shock strategy and wait for the price to rebound before shorting [38]. 3.6.3 Rubber - The ru - nr spread may weaken from mid - December to January. The price is expected to be in shock. Pay attention to the raw material supply in the production area and the domestic demand [39]. 3.6.4 Synthetic Rubber - It is expected to continue to be in shock in the short term. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the price of butadiene and downstream procurement sentiment [40]. 3.6.5 Methanol - The near - month contracts are expected to be in a weak - shock trend, and it is not recommended to be overly bearish. The far - month contracts can be considered for long positions after smooth inventory reduction [41]. 3.6.6 Caustic Soda - Adopt a short - term shock strategy. Avoid going long on near - month contracts and take profit on short positions. Wait and see for long positions in the main contract [43]. 3.6.7 Asphalt - The price fluctuation of asphalt is expected to increase. Pay attention to the price bottom after winter storage. The geopolitical situation and demand changes are the main influencing factors [45]. 3.6.8 Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain is in shock. Consider a strategy of going long on PTA and short on PF. Different products in the chain have different supply - demand and cost situations [47]. 3.6.9 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The LPG price is expected to change from high - level shock to decline. The previous upward - driving logic has been fulfilled, and pay attention to the decline of downstream chemical开工 rates [48]. 3.6.10 Pulp - After the positive news is exhausted, the pulp sentiment declines. The price is in shock. Pay attention to port inventory, warehouse receipt removal speed, and downstream procurement enthusiasm [49]. 3.6.11 Logs - The log market is in a weak - shock state. The spot price is under pressure, and the inventory is expected to increase. The basis provides some support, but the short - term price is still under pressure [50]. 3.6.12 Urea - The spot market is expected to be stable and weak. Adopt a shock strategy. The futures price is affected by spot transactions and the price of coking coal [51].

2 0 2 5 . 1 2 . 1 0 胶版印刷纸周报 中泰期货股份有限公司 高萍 从业资格号：F3002581 交易咨询证号：Z0012806 目录 CONTENTS 1 胶版印刷纸综述 2 胶版印刷纸平衡表解析 3 胶版印刷纸供需解析 4 胶版印刷纸成本利润 5 胶版印刷纸价格与价差 能化分析师：高萍 从业资格号：F3002581 交易咨询证号：Z0012806 数据来源：隆众资讯，中泰期货整理 4 1.2 胶版印刷纸综述——价格 | 项目 | | 单位 | 2025/12/5 | 2025/11/28 | 2024/11/21 | 环比 | 同比 | 预估下周 (根据三方数据线性预估) | 综述 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 出厂送到价 | 银河如意 | | 4500 | 4500 | 4900 | 0 | -400 | 持稳 | | | | | ...

交易咨询资格号： 晨会纪要 2025 年 12 月 10 日 | 证监许可[2012]112 | | --- | | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/12/10 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | | 锌 | 中证1000指数期货 | 红枣 | | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 铅 | 沪深300股指期货 | 多晶硅 | | | | | 燃油 | 中证500股指期货 | | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 液化石油气 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | 0531-81678626 | | PTA | 五债 | | | | | | 短纤 | 沥青 | | | | 客服电话： | | 瓶片 | 棉纱 | | | | | | 原油 | 棉花 | | | | 400-618-6767 | | 塑料 | 十债 | | | | | | 玉米 | 三十债 ...

联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 12 月 9 日 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/9 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 胶版印刷纸 | 焦煤 | 多晶硅 | 红枣 | | | | 焦炭 | 液化石油气 | | | | | 瓶片 | 中证500股指期货 | | | | | 短纤 | 铅 | | | | | PTA | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | | 乙二醇 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | | 玉米 | 锌 | | | | | 橡胶 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | | 尿 ...