月度销量和折扣追踪系列3：折扣略增，12月前两周零售环比增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the following companies: Geely Automobile (175 HK), XPeng Motors (9868 HK), Great Wall Motors (601633 CH), and BYD (002594 CH) [3][36]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is expected to maintain a high level of activity in December, with a projected retail sales increase of 15% year-on-year, reaching 2.7 million vehicles [2][16]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) has reached 50.4%, indicating strong market demand and support from government policies [25][41]. - The report highlights the effectiveness of vehicle replacement and scrapping subsidy policies, with applications exceeding 2.44 million for scrapping and 2.59 million for replacement [32][45]. - The report suggests that the subsidy policies for 2025 are likely to continue, although there may be fluctuations in sales at the beginning of the year due to policy changes [2][16]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In November, retail and wholesale sales reached 2.42 million and 2.94 million vehicles, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 15.61% and 15.54% [24][31]. - NEV sales in November reached 1.513 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 47.56% [25][41]. Market Dynamics - The report notes an increase in discount rates across various vehicle segments, with NEV discounts averaging 19.17% and fuel vehicle discounts at 5.22% [17][50]. - The market share of domestic brands remains strong, accounting for 64.1% in November, despite a slight decrease from October [26][31]. Company Performance - Geely's Q3 revenue reached 60.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20% [3]. - XPeng Motors delivered 30,000 vehicles in November, marking a historical high, and maintained a "Buy" rating due to its strong new vehicle cycle [3][36]. - BYD's revenue for Q3 was 285.92 yuan per share, with a target price set at 415.88 yuan [3][36]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that companies with strong new vehicle cycles, such as Geely, Great Wall, and XPeng, will outperform the industry despite potential sales fluctuations due to policy changes [2][16].