金属行业2025年投资展望：流动性周期切换叠加库存周期开启或催化金属行业强势周期再现

Group 1 - The investment rating for the aluminum industry shows a significant increase in public fund allocation from 0.01% in Q3 2020 to 0.7% in Q3 2024, indicating a positive trend in investment attractiveness [1] - The core viewpoint highlights that the average PE (TTM) of the aluminum industry has decreased from approximately 30X in 2020 to about 13X in 2024, suggesting an improvement in the safety margin for investments [1] - The report indicates that the pricing logic for alumina and aluminum products remains upward due to supply rigidity, which is expected to maintain high industry prosperity [1] Group 2 - The global gold supply has entered a structurally tight state, with supply-demand fundamentals expected to determine the pricing floor for gold [2] - The report notes a significant increase in central bank and ETF gold consumption over the past decade, indicating a structural change in gold consumption patterns [6] - Historical data shows that gold prices tend to rise during U.S. interest rate cuts, with an average increase of 66.7% during such periods [18][44] Group 3 - The global platinum market is experiencing a structural shortage, with supply showing signs of contraction since 2016 [50] - The report predicts that global platinum demand will reach 7.22 million ounces in 2024, reflecting a 20.33% increase from 2020 [28] - The supply of molybdenum is characterized by strong rigidity, with a projected price increase potential of nearly 40% due to tight supply-demand dynamics [37] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the importance of liquidity cycles and inventory cycles in driving commodity prices, suggesting a potential resurgence in the metal industry [38][39] - The analysis indicates that the metal industry should focus on four main lines: industrial metals, new materials, small metals with elastic demand, and precious metals with strong hedging properties [43][79] - The overall financial health of the industry has improved, with average ROE rising from 2.49% to 8.31% and average ROA increasing from 0.98% to 3.53% from Q1 2021 to Q3 2024 [89]