事件点评：央行国债净买入，并不意味国债收益率下行

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the central bank's net purchase of government bonds does not necessarily indicate a decline in bond yields, as it is primarily a method of injecting base currency into the economy [2][11]. - Since August 2024, the central bank has continuously net purchased government bonds for four months, totaling 700 billion, with monthly net purchases of 100 billion in August and 200 billion from September to November [2][11]. - The report emphasizes that the "funding rate" is a more significant indicator of the central bank's monetary policy stance than the net purchase of government bonds [2][11]. Group 2 - The report outlines two scenarios for future bond market yields: one where yields continue to decline, contingent on a significant reduction in the 7-day OMO rate and DR007 rate, and another where yields rise under different conditions [2][11]. - In the second scenario, if the OMO rate is cut by 20 basis points to 1.3%, the 10-year government bond yield could range between 1.9% and 2.2%, while the 1-year bond yield could rise to around 1.2% [2][11]. - The report warns of potential volatility in the bond market, suggesting that investors should pay closer attention to the central bank's monetary policy adjustments [2][11].