SHA GANG GU FEN(002075) 东吴证券·2024-12-26 13:45Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of 5% to 15% over the next six months [1][4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is the largest private steel enterprise in China, operating under the Shagang Group, and has established a dual-driven development model of "special steel + gears" [1][2]. - The steel industry is currently facing weak supply and demand, and the automotive sector is undergoing structural adjustments, leading to a low profit point in Q3 of the year. However, there is potential for profit recovery in the future [3][14]. - The company has a special steel production capacity of 3.2 million tons and has recently acquired a 67% stake in Shandong Eagle Wheel, enhancing its gear business with an annual production capacity of 2.1 million units [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 10.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 110 million yuan, down 43.15% year-on-year [3][13]. - In Q3 2024, revenue was 3.15 billion yuan, down 17.4% year-on-year and 20.4% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of only 134 thousand yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 98% year-on-year [3][13]. - The company’s gear products, which include components for traditional and new energy vehicles, are facing demand challenges due to the rapid development of the domestic new energy vehicle market [3][14]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024 and 2025 has been revised down to 0.05 yuan and 0.07 yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2026 at 0.10 yuan per share. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are 135, 110, and 76 times [4][13]. - Despite the challenges in the steel industry, the company's dual-driven model is expected to support its profitability, maintaining its competitive edge in the special steel sector [4][14].