东吴证券：晨会纪要-20241227

Group 1: Macro Strategy - The small-cap stocks have accumulated a rise of over 50% since September, leading to a rapid increase in valuations and a certain level of bubble risk [1] - Near the deadline for the new delisting regulations, some funds are choosing to avoid related risks, resulting in increased selling pressure [1] - After the Central Economic Work Conference, there is insufficient upward momentum for the index in the short term, with more funds opting for profit-taking and risk aversion, leading to overall market weakness [1] - Long-term, there are clear signs of policy increments and shifts, with the pace of implementation accelerating, suggesting that the market still has upward potential after short-term adjustments [1] Group 2: Gold Sector Strategy - The traditional pricing framework for gold has proven ineffective this year, primarily due to a lack of trust in sovereign currencies, leading to increased demand for gold reserves [13][29] - Looking ahead to 2025, multiple factors are expected to support a bullish trend for gold, with an excellent buying opportunity anticipated in the first half of 2025 [13][29] - The new U.S. government is expected to have a long-term positive impact on gold pricing, although there may be short-term negative risks [13][29] - Emerging markets are likely to increase their gold reserves to stabilize their currencies and reduce economic volatility, with central banks expected to maintain annual purchases of 800-1200 tons [13][29] - Global gold ETFs have significant potential for further purchases, with net inflows during the current easing cycle being substantially lower than previous cycles [13][29] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - The report indicates that the company is expected to benefit from the recent Central Work Conference's emphasis on boosting consumption, with commercial rental and management income projected to increase [3] - The company's net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 750 million, 770 million, and 810 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS adjustments [3] - The company is focusing on high-energy cities and has shown stable commercial operations, leading to an optimistic outlook for its medium to long-term development [3] - The company has improved its financing environment, which is expected to support its valuation recovery [3] Group 4: Industry Trends - The report highlights the potential for the small commodity city to deepen its international trade reforms, which could enhance its import and export capabilities [8] - The company is expected to leverage its position in the small commodity trade hub to expand its cross-border import business, with significant growth potential in this area [8] - The company plans to implement a positive list system for daily consumer goods imports, aiming to significantly increase its import volume by 2030 [8] - The report anticipates that the company's logistics, payment, and data service sectors will see substantial growth due to ongoing investments and policy support [8]