钢铁行业月报（2024.11）：钢材出口高位回落，政策利好明年钢需稳固

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Follow the Market" for the steel industry [40]. Core Insights - In November, domestic iron ore production decreased by 6.1% month-on-month and 9.3% year-on-year, while cumulative production from January to November increased by 1.9% year-on-year [39]. - Iron ore imports in November were 10.186 million tons, down 1.9% month-on-month and 0.9% year-on-year, with cumulative imports from January to November rising by 4.3% year-on-year [39]. - The report indicates a contraction in iron ore supply, with both domestic production and imports declining, while coal production has increased, maintaining a loose supply of coking coal [51]. - Steel production has slowed, with crude steel output decreasing by 4.3% month-on-month but increasing by 2.5% year-on-year [56]. - The report anticipates that while short-term demand may weaken entering the off-season, inventory levels remain reasonable, providing support for steel prices [51]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The steel sector shows potential for upward rebound due to non-existent supply-demand conflicts and supportive incremental policies [52]. - Five main investment lines are suggested, focusing on companies with strong dividend yields, technical barriers, and those positioned for recovery [52]. 2. Raw Materials 2.1 Iron Ore - November iron ore production was 8.115 million tons, with a cumulative total of 95.226 million tons from January to November [39]. - Port inventories of iron ore stood at 14.974 million tons as of December 20, with a daily discharge rate of 3.24 million tons [39]. 2.2 Coking Coal - November coking coal imports reached 1.2295 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.02%, with cumulative imports from January to November rising by 23.32% [39]. 3. Steel 3.1 Crude Steel - Crude steel production in November was 7.84 million tons, with a cumulative total of 92.919 million tons from January to November, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% [56]. 3.2 Steel Products - Steel production in November was 11.881 million tons, with a cumulative total of 128.304 million tons from January to November, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [69]. - Steel exports in November were 928 thousand tons, down 17.0% month-on-month but up 15.9% year-on-year, with cumulative exports from January to November increasing by 22.6% [80]. 4. Demand 4.1 Construction Industry - As of the end of November, cumulative funds for real estate development were 9.66 trillion yuan, down 18.0% year-on-year [88]. 4.2 Manufacturing Industry - The report highlights the manufacturing sector's performance, including automotive and machinery production, indicating a mixed outlook [112]. 4.3 Indirect Exports - The report discusses the impact of trade dynamics on steel exports, emphasizing the need to monitor potential trade friction [51].