中原证券：晨会聚焦-20241227

Market Performance - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with growth sectors leading the gains, showing a slight upward trend [1] - The financial sector led the A-share market with minor adjustments, while the automotive and home appliance sectors also showed slight gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index had average P/E ratios of 14.40x and 36.97x respectively, indicating a suitable environment for long-term investment [3] - The market is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend, with a focus on domestic macro policies and capital market reforms [3][4] Industry Insights - The power and utilities sector outperformed the market, with the CITIC Power and Utilities Index rising by 2.72% in December, outperforming the CSI 300 by 0.96 percentage points [5] - Wind and solar power accounted for 40.51% of total installed capacity by the end of November, while thermal power decreased to 44.34% [6] - Natural gas production grew steadily but at a slower pace, with imports declining by 0.8% in November [7] - The automotive sector saw strong performance, with passenger vehicle sales reaching 108.3 million units in December, a 34% year-on-year increase [9] - New energy vehicles continued to gain market share, with a penetration rate of 45.6% in November [9] Policy and Economic Environment - The recent Politburo meeting signaled more proactive macro policies, including stabilizing the property and stock markets, boosting consumption, and implementing more active fiscal and monetary policies [3][4] - The Fed's latest statements suggest a potential slowdown in the pace of interest rate cuts, which could impact external market conditions [3][4] - The domestic macro policy environment is expected to support market confidence and stabilize expectations, with a focus on technological innovation and industrial upgrading [3][4] Investment Opportunities - Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in sectors such as automotive, grid equipment, banking, and insurance [3][4] - The power and utilities sector is rated as "Outperform," with a focus on high-dividend, low-valuation assets such as large hydropower and nuclear power companies [11][20] - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from policy-driven demand, with a focus on intelligent and new energy vehicles [9] - The pet food export market showed strong growth, with a 13.9% year-on-year increase in November, driven by rising pet ownership and consumption levels [20] Sector-Specific Data - In November, industrial natural gas production reached 20.7 billion cubic meters, a 3.1% year-on-year increase, while imports fell by 0.8% [7] - The national natural gas apparent consumption in November was 34.86 billion cubic meters, a 0.5% year-on-year decrease [7] - The automotive sector saw a 34% year-on-year increase in retail sales in December, with cumulative sales reaching 21.34 million units, a 6% increase year-on-year [9] - New energy heavy trucks saw a record high in November, with sales reaching 10,100 units, a 117% year-on-year increase [9]