快递物流供应链2025年度投资策略：优选内需弹性，寻觅外需亮点

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the logistics sector, emphasizing the preference for domestic demand over external demand [114]. Core Insights - The current macroeconomic policy shift focuses on stimulating economic circulation, particularly in manufacturing and consumption, rather than traditional real estate and infrastructure investments. This suggests a favorable outlook for ToB logistics companies and bulk supply chains [121][96]. - The e-commerce express delivery market is expected to maintain a growth rate of 10%-15% through 2025, driven by the ongoing trend of smaller package sizes and heightened competition among e-commerce platforms [2][23][54]. - The report highlights the potential for significant growth in the "Asia, Africa, and Latin America" (亚非拉) markets, driven by China's robust overseas investment and trade relationships [29][176]. Summary by Sections Domestic Logistics - The focus is on ToB logistics companies that are closely related to manufacturing and retail, which are expected to benefit from policy support. The demand elasticity is anticipated to increase with macroeconomic improvements [96][113]. - Companies like SF Express are expected to see improvements in net profit margins and asset turnover rates, leading to a higher return on equity (ROE) [101][159]. Direct Logistics - Direct logistics services are projected to benefit from the recovery in manufacturing and retail sectors, with a strong cyclical nature. The report indicates that SF Express is focusing on high-end express services, which are expected to drive volume growth [113][101]. Bulk Supply Chain - The profitability of bulk supply chain companies is expected to improve as demand for bulk commodities recovers. Companies like Xiamen Xiangyu and Xiamen Guomao are anticipated to see a turnaround in asset turnover efficiency and net asset returns [88][166]. E-commerce Express Delivery - The report notes a return to a differentiated logic in the express delivery industry, with a focus on companies showing marginal improvements. The competitive landscape is expected to intensify, particularly for second-tier express brands [54][57]. - The report anticipates that the volume of e-commerce packages will continue to grow, driven by increased sensitivity to pricing among merchants due to the declining value of packages [139][168]. Logistics Expansion Overseas - The report emphasizes the importance of capturing opportunities in the Asia, Africa, and Latin America markets, where trade relationships are strengthening. Companies like Jiayou International are expanding their cross-border business in these regions [59][176]. - The growth of cross-border e-commerce is expected to remain robust, particularly in Europe, despite uncertainties in the U.S. market [67][180].