国君非银|消费信贷同比少增,政策发力促回暖

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the consumption sector, suggesting that policies aimed at stimulating consumption are expected to accelerate, particularly benefiting durable goods such as automobiles, home appliances, and furniture [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in household short-term consumption loans, which fell by 1.6% year-on-year, amounting to 101.91 trillion yuan, marking a decrease of 51.5 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1][4]. - Retail sales growth has slowed, with the total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 37.596 billion yuan in November, reflecting a year-on-year increase of only 3%, down from 4.8% previously [2]. - The early timing of the "Double Eleven" shopping festival in 2024 has contributed to a decrease in November's consumption growth, as some demand was pulled forward into October [2][4]. - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of boosting consumption and investment efficiency, with plans for a series of policies aimed at enhancing consumer capacity and willingness, particularly for low- and middle-income groups [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Data - In November 2024, the new social financing scale was 2.3 trillion yuan, below the expected 2.9 trillion yuan, while the urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0%, aligning with expectations [2]. Consumer Behavior - The report notes a significant drop in optional consumption categories, with cosmetics sales down 26% year-on-year and jewelry sales down 5.9% [2]. Policy Implications - The anticipated implementation of consumption-boosting policies is expected to catalyze a recovery in consumer spending, particularly in durable goods sectors [5][6].