国君航空|2024年周转实现恢复,2025年将迎票价修复

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the aviation industry, recommending an increase in holdings in the sector [6][19]. Core Insights - The aviation industry is expected to see a significant recovery in demand, particularly during the 2025 Spring Festival, with optimistic supply-demand dynamics anticipated [3][8]. - The report highlights that the reduction in fuel costs will depend on supply and demand, with a projected increase of over 30% in "net ticket prices" (ticket price minus average fuel cost) year-on-year by Q4 2024, indicating a substantial reduction in losses for airlines during the off-peak season [1][5]. - The report emphasizes the long-term potential of the Chinese aviation market, noting that demand is expected to recover significantly, with a focus on market-driven ticket pricing and a slowdown in fleet growth [7][9]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to see a surge in aviation demand due to overlapping travel needs, including holiday travel, student vacations, and business trips [4]. - The industry anticipates a robust recovery in supply-demand dynamics, with the new flight season continuing the trend of reducing domestic flights while increasing international flights [8]. Section 2: Financial Performance Indicators - The report indicates that from January to November 2024, the industry passenger volume increased by 18% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in fleet turnover and passenger load factors [13]. - The industry’s passenger load factor reached 83%, matching pre-pandemic levels, with significant improvements noted in the second half of the year [14]. Section 3: Pricing Strategies - Airlines are adopting a "load factor first" strategy, leading to a year-on-year decline in domestic passenger revenue, primarily due to longer domestic flight distances and cautious revenue strategies during the off-peak season [15]. - The report suggests that the high base of ticket prices during the Spring Festival in 2024, combined with falling fuel prices, may lead to a year-on-year decline in ticket prices during the Spring Festival [5]. Section 4: Fuel Cost and Profitability - The report forecasts a significant reduction in fuel costs, with an estimated 24% year-on-year decrease in domestic aviation fuel prices by Q4 2024, contributing to a substantial reduction in losses during the off-peak season [18]. - The expectation of improved profitability during peak seasons is highlighted, with airlines likely to exhibit unexpected earnings elasticity [9].