山西证券：研究早观点-20241227

Industry Overview - The coal import volume continued to grow in November 2024, with various coal types showing month-on-month increases [5][28] - The overall coal import price remained relatively high, with a month-on-month increase of 1.48% in November [28] Coal Import Data - From January to November 2024, the cumulative coal and lignite import volume reached 490 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15% [7] - In November alone, the import volume was 54.98 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 26.36% and a month-on-month increase of 18.88% [7] - The average import price for coal during January to November 2024 was recorded at $97 per ton, a decrease of 13.04% compared to the same period last year [7] Coal Types Analysis - The import volume for thermal coal, coking coal, and lignite all showed year-on-year growth in November, while anthracite coal saw a decline [20][28] - The demand for thermal coal increased due to lower temperatures, contributing to the month-on-month rise in import volume [28] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend stocks and stable high-dividend varieties in a low-interest-rate environment, with specific recommendations for companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Zhongmei Energy [21] - Companies such as Pingmei Shenma Group, Huabei Mining, and Yanzhou Coal Mining are highlighted as having high dividend elasticity [21] Solar Energy Sector - In November 2024, the domestic photovoltaic (PV) installed capacity increased by 25.0 GW, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.3% and a month-on-month growth of 22.4% [3][17] - The cumulative installed capacity for PV from January to November 2024 reached 206.3 GW, with a year-on-year increase of 25.9% [3] Inverter Export Data - The inverter export value in November was 4.33 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 8.1% [3] - Cumulative inverter exports from January to November totaled 54.04 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 17.3% [3]